IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/94988.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Ogunjimi, Joshua
  • Oladipupo, Dauda

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of demographic structure on Nigeria’s economic growth over the period between 1981 and 2016. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL) framework and granger causality test, this study confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The results further showed that aged population has a negative impact on economic growth while children population as well as labour force stimulates the growth of the Nigerian economy both in the short-run and long-run thereby support the existence of the demographic dividend hypothesis. On the other hand, whereas a bidirectional relationship exists between aged population and economic growth in Nigeria and a unidirectional causality runs from children population and labour force to real GDP, economic growth engenders gross fixed capital formation (investment) and school enrolment. Hence, this study concludes that aged population, children population, labour force, gross fixed capital formation and secondary school enrolment constitute important determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, this study recommends that the Nigerian government provide incentives and platforms which will encourage old people to engage in productive activities and to continually develop human capital of the children and labour force as it would increase the effectiveness of labour and have growth-enhancing effects on the Nigerian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ogunjimi, Joshua & Oladipupo, Dauda, 2018. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 94988, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94988
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94988/1/MPRA_paper_94988.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Brunow & Georg Hirte, 2006. "Age structure and regional economic growth," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 26(1), pages 3-23, March.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    3. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    4. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    5. Wei, Zheng & Hao, Rui, 2010. "Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 472-491, December.
    6. Atish Dash & William Joe & Pradeep Agrawal, 2015. "Demographic Transition, Savings, and Economic Growth in China and India," Working Papers id:7586, eSocialSciences.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    8. Wako, Hassen, 2012. "Demographic changes and economic development: Application of the vector error correction model (VECM) to the case of Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 72618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Atanda, Akinwande A. & Aminu, Salaudeen B. & Alimi, Olorunfemi Y., 2012. "The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries," MPRA Paper 37966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wongboonsin, Kua & Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2017. "Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 364-379.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afolabi, Joshua Adeyemi, 2023. "Natural resource rent and environmental quality nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessing the role of regulatory quality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Zhang, Qianxiao & Shah, Syed Ale Raza & Yang, Ling, 2022. "An Appreciated Response of Disaggregated Energies Consumption towards the Sustainable Growth: A debate on G-10 Economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi & Dauda Olarotimi Oladipupo, 2019. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 186-196.
    2. Dieu Thanh Le & Hail Park, 2019. "The Impact Of Demographic Change On Economic Growth," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 471-484, August.
    3. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    4. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    5. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    6. Liu, Shenglong & Hu, Angang, 2013. "Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 71-77.
    7. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    8. Yufei Lin & Yingxia Pu & Xinyi Zhao & Guangqing Chi & Cui Ye, 2023. "The Spatiotemporal Elasticity of Age Structure in China’s Interprovincial Migration System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Antonio Golini & Anna Di Bartolomeo, 2009. "The impact of a massive migration flow on the regional population structure: The case of Italy," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 149-165.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    11. Terrie Walmsley & Angel Aguiar & Syud Amer Ahmed, 2017. "Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South-East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 116-139, January.
    12. Chaurasia, Aalok Ranjan, 2020. "Economic Growth and Population Transition inChina and India 1990-2018," MPRA Paper 101130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. William Joe & Atish Kumar Dash & Pradeep Agrawal, 2015. "Demographic Transition, Savings, and Economic Growth in China and India," IEG Working Papers 351, Institute of Economic Growth.
    14. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    15. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Shekh Farid & Mamata Mostari, 2022. "Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 108-126, June.
    17. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    18. Aiyar, Shekhar & Mody, Ashoka, 2013. "The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 105-148.
    19. Jinqi Ye & Ziyan Chen & Bin Peng, 2021. "Is the demographic dividend diminishing in China? Evidence from population aging and economic growth during 1990–2015," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2255-2274, November.
    20. Zainab Jehan & Faiza Azhar Khan, 2020. "Demographic Changes and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Capital Stock," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 155-178.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Structure; Demographic Dividend; ARDL; Granger Causality; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94988. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.