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Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth

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  • Michael Sarel

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. It develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Macroeconomic and demographic data are used to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups. A panel database of effective labor supply is constructed in order to reflect the changing age structure of the population. The historical measured growth rates are then deconstructed into effects of demographic dynamics and into "real" growth rates, net of demographic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Sarel, 1995. "Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 398-410, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:42:y:1995:i:2:p:398-410
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ekrame Boubtane & Jean-Christophe Dumont & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Immigration and economic growth in the OECD countries 1986–2006," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 340-360.
    2. Ekrame Boubtane & Jean-Christophe Dumont & Christophe Rault, 2013. "Immigration and economic growth in the OECD countries 1986-2006," Post-Print halshs-00800617, HAL.
    3. James Feyrer, 2011. "The US productivity slowdown, the baby boom, and management quality," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 267-284, January.
    4. Frank Neri, 1998. "The Economic Performance of the States and Territories of Australia: 1861–1992," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(225), pages 105-120, June.
    5. Shekh Farid & Mamata Mostari, 2022. "Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 108-126, June.
    6. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes and Total Labor Productivity in Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 77538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita income," Occasional Papers 0604, Banco de España.
    8. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    9. Yigang Wei & Zhichao Wang & Huiwen Wang & Yan Li & Zhenyu Jiang, 2019. "Predicting population age structures of China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on compositional data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, April.
    10. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 589-608, July.
    11. Sadik, Ali T. & Bolbol, Ali A., 2001. "Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2111-2125, December.
    12. Persson, Joakim, 1999. "Demographic and Per Capita Income Dynamics: A Convergence Study on Demographics, Human Capital, and Per Capita Income for the US States," Working Paper Series 156, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Persson, Joakim & Malmberg, Bo, 1997. "Human Capital, Demographics, and Growth across the US States 1920-1990," Seminar Papers 619, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    14. Munir Ahmad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2019. "Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 753-772, April.
    15. Misbah Tanveer Choudhry & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2016. "Age dependency and labour productivity divergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4823-4845, October.
    16. Misbah Tanveer Choudhry, 2013. "Age Dependency and Labor Productivity Divergence," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 113/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    17. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Physiological Aging around the World and Economic Growth," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 375, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    18. Stephan Brunow & Georg Hirte, 2009. "The age pattern of human capital and regional productivity: A spatial econometric study on german regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 799-823, November.
    19. Wongboonsin, Kua & Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2017. "Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 364-379.
    20. Grzegorz Przekota & Andrzej Janowski & Anna Szczepanska-Przekota, 2023. "Causality in the Relationship between Economic Growth and Compensation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-16, November.
    21. Ekrame Boubtane & Jean-Christophe Dumont & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Immigration and economic growth in the OECD countries 1986–2006," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 340-360.
    22. Amer Bisat, 1997. "Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies," IMF Working Papers 1997/085, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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