IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v126y2023ics0264999323002420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Huoqing
  • Chen, Shiyi
  • Xi, Xican

Abstract

This paper studies the interaction of laborforce aging and structural transformation in China. Empirically, laborforce aging has occurred much faster in agriculture, and rural–urban migration, the key driving force of structural transformation, was lower among old workers. We build a two-sector spatial equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous migration costs across workers. Our quantitative exercises calibrate the model to the Chinese data, implying that the higher migration costs facing old workers account for about 1/3 of laborforce aging in agriculture between 2000 and 2010. Furthermore, the aging of the aggregate labor force slows the reallocation of labor from agriculture by 1.6 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Shiyi & Xi, Xican, 2023. "Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323002420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323002420
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106430?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tasso Adamopoulos & Diego Restuccia, 2014. "The Size Distribution of Farms and International Productivity Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1667-1697, June.
    2. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    3. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    4. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    6. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, January.
    7. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    8. Alwyn Young, 2013. "Inequality, the Urban-Rural Gap, and Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1727-1785.
    9. Douglas Gollin & Stephen L. Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2004. "Farm Work, Home Work, and International Productivity Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 827-850, October.
    10. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    11. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
    12. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    13. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2019. "Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-39, April.
    14. repec:wyi:journl:002164 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    16. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    17. Rebecca Diamond, 2016. "The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 479-524, March.
    18. Tommaso Porzio & Federico Rossi & Gabriella Santangelo, 2022. "The Human Side of Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2774-2814, August.
    19. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    20. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    21. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    22. Fabian Eckert & Michael Peters, 2018. "Spatial Structural Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 98, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Zhang, Haifeng & Zhang, Hongliang & Zhang, Junsen, 2015. "Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 170-185.
    24. Redding, Stephen J., 2016. "Goods trade, factor mobility and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 148-167.
    25. Javier Cravino & Andrei Levchenko & Marco Rojas, 2022. "Population Aging and Structural Transformation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 479-498, October.
    26. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Eduardo Morales & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Owen Zidar, 2019. "State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 333-376.
    27. Peter Kuhn & Kailing Shen, 2013. "Gender Discrimination in Job Ads: Evidence from China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 287-336.
    28. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado & Markus Poschke, 2011. "Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 127-158, July.
    29. Tasso Adam & Loren Brandt & Chaoran Chen & Diego Restuccia & Xiaoyun Wei, 2024. "Land Security and Mobility Frictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1941-1987.
    30. Fernando Parro, 2013. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and the Skill Premium in a Quantitative Model of Trade," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 72-117, April.
    31. Van Borm, Hannah & Burn, Ian & Baert, Stijn, 2021. "What Does a Job Candidate's Age Signal to Employers?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    32. Jingting Fan, 2019. "Internal Geography, Labor Mobility, and the Distributional Impacts of Trade," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 252-288, July.
    33. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    34. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 707-720, October.
    35. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
    36. David Neumark, 2018. "Experimental Research on Labor Market Discrimination," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 799-866, September.
    37. Ian Burn & Patrick Button & Luis Munguia Corella & David Neumark, 2022. "Does Ageist Language in Job Ads Predict Age Discrimination in Hiring?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 613-667.
    38. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    39. Trevor Tombe, 2015. "The Missing Food Problem: Trade, Agriculture, and International Productivity Differences," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 226-258, July.
    40. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    41. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    42. Kam Wing Chan, 2010. "The Household Registration System and Migrant Labor in China: Notes on a Debate," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 357-364, June.
    43. Hao, Tongtong & Sun, Ruiqi & Tombe, Trevor & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2020. "The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-134.
    44. Chenchen Ren & Xinyue Zhou & Chen Wang & Yaolin Guo & Yu Diao & Sisi Shen & Stefan Reis & Wanyue Li & Jianming Xu & Baojing Gu, 2023. "Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 616(7955), pages 96-103, April.
    45. Brandt, Loren & Holz, Carsten A, 2006. "Spatial Price Differences in China: Estimates and Implications," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 43-86, October.
    46. Wei Huang & Chuanchuan Zhang, 2021. "The Power of Social Pensions: Evidence from China's New Rural Pension Scheme," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 179-205, April.
    47. Carlsson, Magnus & Eriksson, Stefan, 2019. "Age discrimination in hiring decisions: Evidence from a field experiment in the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 173-183.
    48. David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2013. "Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 948-980, April.
    49. Gharad Bryan & Melanie Morten, 2019. "The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2229-2268.
    50. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meng, Meng & Zhang, Wuke & Zhu, Xi & Shi, Qinghua, 2024. "Agricultural mechanization and rural worker mobility: Evidence from the Agricultural Machinery Purchase Subsidies programme in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Miao Fu & Lucang Wang & Qianguo Li, 2024. "How Does the Spatial Structure of Urban Agglomerations Affect the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Population Aging?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pan, Xiameng & Sun, Chang, 2024. "Internal migration, remittances and economic development," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Fabian Eckert & Michael Peters, 2018. "Spatial Structural Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 98, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Huoqing Cao & Chaoran Chen & Xican Xi & Sharon Xuejing Zuo, 2024. "Family migration and structural transformation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 753-776, August.
    4. Egger, Peter H. & Loumeau, Gabriel & Loumeau, Nicole, 2023. "China's dazzling transport-infrastructure growth: Measurement and effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Zhilu Che & Jialu Che & Sen Wang, 2024. "The gains from changes in internal trade costs: A quantitative analysis of China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 896-930, June.
    6. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Ma, Lin, 2021. "Urbanization policy and economic development: A quantitative analysis of China's differential hukou reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Sebastian Heise & Tommaso Porzio, 2019. "Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets," Staff Reports 898, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Tasso Adam & Loren Brandt & Chaoran Chen & Diego Restuccia & Xiaoyun Wei, 2024. "Land Security and Mobility Frictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1941-1987.
    9. Blouri, Yashar & Ehrlich, Maximilian V., 2020. "On the optimal design of place-based policies: A structural evaluation of EU regional transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    11. Hao, Tongtong & Sun, Ruiqi & Tombe, Trevor & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2020. "The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-134.
    12. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    13. Xiameng Pan & Chang Sun, 2023. "Internal Migration, Remittances and Economic Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 10623, CESifo.
    14. Trevor Tombe, 2012. "The Missing Food Problem," Working Papers tt0060, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2012.
    15. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J Redding & Daniel M Sturm, 2020. "The Making of the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from London," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2059-2133.
    16. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1411-1452, July.
    17. Qingen Gai & Naijia Guo & Bingjing Li & Qinghua Shi & Xiaodong Zhu, 2021. "Migration Costs, Sorting, and the Agricultural Productivity Gap," Working Papers tecipa-693, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    18. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2021. "Quantitative Economic Geography Meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges," Working Papers 1249, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    20. Henderson, J. Vernon & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2024. "Urban and spatial economics after 50 years," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125675, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Laborforce aging; Structural transformation; Migration barriers; Spatial equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323002420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.