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Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces

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  • Zhang, Haifeng
  • Zhang, Hongliang
  • Zhang, Junsen

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the economic implications of demographic age structure in the context of regional development in China. We extend the development accounting framework by incorporating age structure and apply it to a panel data set of 28 Chinese provinces. We find that changes in age structure, as reflected by shifts in both the size and internal demographic composition of the working-age population, are significantly correlated with provincial economic growth rates. During our study period 1990–2005, the evolution of age structure accounts for nearly one-fifth of the growth in GDP per capita, of which more than half is attributable to shifts in the internal demographic composition of the working-age population. Differences in age structure across provinces also explain more than one-eighth of the persistent inter-provincial income inequality.

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  • Zhang, Haifeng & Zhang, Hongliang & Zhang, Junsen, 2015. "Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 170-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:43:y:2015:i:1:p:170-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2014.07.002
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    3. Fraumeni, Barbara M. & He, Junzi & Li, Haizheng & Liu, Qinyi, 2019. "Regional distribution and dynamics of human capital in China 1985–2014," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 853-866.
    4. Jinqi Ye & Ziyan Chen & Bin Peng, 2021. "Is the demographic dividend diminishing in China? Evidence from population aging and economic growth during 1990–2015," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2255-2274, November.
    5. Banda, Mutisunge Allan, 2024. "Population age structure as a determinant of long-run macroeconomic growth: demographic endogenous growth theory," MPRA Paper 122725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Pereira,Daniel & Roberts,Mark, 2019. "Cities of Workers, Children, or Seniors? Age Structure and Economic Growth in a Global Cross-Section of Cities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9040, The World Bank.
    9. Wu, Feifei & Yang, Hongna & Gao, Bo & Gu, Yan, 2021. "Old, not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Steven Lugauer & Jinlan Ni & Zhichao Yin, 2014. "Micro-Data Evidence on Family Size and Chinese Saving Rates," Working Papers 023, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Age structure; Economic development; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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