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Spatial Structural Change

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Abstract

Between 1880 and 1920, the US agricultural employment share fell from 50% to 25%. However, despite aggregate demand shifting away from their sector of specialization, rural labor markets saw faster wage growth and industrialization than non-agricultural parts of the US. We propose a spatial model of the structural transformation to analyze the link between aggregate structural change and local economic development. The calibrated model shows that rural areas adapted to the decline of the agricultural sector by adopting technologies already in use in urban locations. Without such catchup growth, economic development would have been urban-biased and spatial inequality would have increased.

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  • Fabian Eckert & Michael Peters, 2022. "Spatial Structural Change," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 063, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:95875
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.63
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis & Perroni, Carlo & Chern Wong, Horng, 2023. "Urban-Biased Structural Change," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 694, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Cassan,Guilhem & Keniston,Daniel & Kleineberg,Tatjana Karina, 2021. "A Division of Laborers : Identity and Efficiency in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9544, The World Bank.
    4. Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria, 2022. "Infrastructure and Structural Change in the Lake Chad Region," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9899, The World Bank.
    5. Gaggl, Paul & Gray, Rowena & Marinescu, Ioana & Morin, Miguel, 2021. "Does electricity drive structural transformation? Evidence from the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Cuberes, David & Desmet, Klaus & Rappaport, Jordan, 2021. "Urban growth shadows," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Victor Couture & Cecile Gaubert & Jessie Handbury & Erik Hurst, 2019. "Income Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting," NBER Working Papers 26142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Blakeslee, David & Dar, Aaditya & Fishman, Ram & Malik, Samreen & Pellegrina, Heitor S. & Bagavathinathan, Karan Singh, 2023. "Irrigation and the spatial pattern of local economic development in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Fabian Eckert & Andrés Gvirtz & Jack Liang & Michael Peters, 2020. "A Method to Construct Geographical Crosswalks with an Application to US Counties since 1790," NBER Working Papers 26770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chan, Jeff, 2022. "Farming output, concentration, and market access: Evidence from the 19th-century American railroad expansion," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Fabian Eckert & Teresa C. Fort & Peter K. Schott & Natalie J. Yang, 2020. "Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns," NBER Working Papers 26632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. A. Kerem Cosar & Latchezar Popov & Sophie Osotimehin, 2019. "Regional and Aggregate Implications of Transportation Costs and Tradability of Services," 2019 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Xiameng Pan & Chang Sun, 2023. "Internal Migration, Remittances and Economic Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 10623, CESifo.
    14. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2021. "Quantitative Economic Geography Meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges," Working Papers 1249, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Hao, Tongtong & Sun, Ruiqi & Tombe, Trevor & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2020. "The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-134.
    16. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Nagy, Dávid Krisztián, 2022. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Tianyu Fan & Michael Peters & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2023. "Growing Like India—the Unequal Effects of Service‐Led Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1457-1494, July.
    19. David Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Hinterlands, city formation and growth: evidence from the U.S. westward expansion," Economics Working Papers 1717, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Rodrigo Ad'o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp'sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. Herrera Dappe,Matias & Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria, 2021. "Infrastructure and Structural Change in the Horn of Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9870, The World Bank.
    22. Gollin, Douglas & Kirchberger, Martina & Lagakos, David, 2021. "Do urban wage premia reflect lower amenities? Evidence from Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    23. Carlo Medici, 2024. "Closing Ranks: Organized Labor and Immigration," CESifo Working Paper Series 11437, CESifo.
    24. David Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Economics Working Papers 1774, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Industrial structure; Economic geography; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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