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Population Aging and Structural Transformation

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  • Javier Cravino
  • Andrei Levchenko
  • Marco Rojas

Abstract

We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transformation process. Household-level data from the United States show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantitative model to show that US population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is about the same size as the contribution of real income growth and about half as large as that of changes in relative prices.

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  • Javier Cravino & Andrei Levchenko & Marco Rojas, 2022. "Population Aging and Structural Transformation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 479-498, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:479-98
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200371
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis & Perroni, Carlo & Chern Wong, Horng, 2023. "Urban-Biased Structural Change," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 694, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Gustavo Ventura & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Wealth of Working Nations," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    5. Gaggl, Paul & Gray, Rowena & Marinescu, Ioana & Morin, Miguel, 2021. "Does electricity drive structural transformation? Evidence from the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Mauri Kotamaki & Jonne Lehtimaki, 2024. "Getting too old for this: Economic effects of ageing population in Finland," Discussion Papers 168, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    7. Tamai, Toshiki, 2023. "The rate of discount on public investments with future bias in an altruistic overlapping generations model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    9. Ambrocio, Gene, 2023. "Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023, Bank of Finland.
    10. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2023. "Population Aging and Income Inequality in a Semi-Endogenous Growth Model," KIER Working Papers 1096, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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