Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.06.012
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2014.
"Fractional integration and cointegration in US financial time series data,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1389-1410, December.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 3416, CESifo.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2012. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data," Faculty Working Papers 12/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1116, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
- Chang, Lei & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2023. "Role of artificial intelligence on green economic development: Joint determinates of natural resources and green total factor productivity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Aiyagari, S. Rao & McGrattan, Ellen R., 1998.
"The optimum quantity of debt,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 447-469, October.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "The optimal quantity of debt," Working Papers 538, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "The optimum quantity of debt," Staff Report 203, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021.
"Persistence in the private debt-t -GDP ratio: evidence from 43 OECD countries,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(43), pages 5018-5027, September.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021. "Persistence in the Private Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Evidence from 43 OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8889, CESifo.
- Tim Willems & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022.
"Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 75-93, November.
- Zettelmeyer, Jeromin & Willems, Tim, 2021. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 16817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tim Willems & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2022/016, International Monetary Fund.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988.
"Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Chang, Lei & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2023. "Role of mineral resources trade in renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
- Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
- Barro, Robert J, 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Massimo Antonini & Kevin Lee & Jacinta Pires, 2013.
"Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in 10 EU Countries,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 277-298, March.
- Massimo Antonini & Kevin Lee & Jacinta Pires, 2013. "Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in 10 EU Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 277-298, March.
- Bohn, Henning, 1995.
"The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
- Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Ricardo Reis, 2022.
"Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
- Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "Debt revenue and the sustainability of public debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118125, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt," Discussion Papers 2214, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
- Niemann, Stefan & Pichler, Paul & Sorger, Gerhard, 2013.
"Public debt, discretionary policy, and inflation persistence,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1097-1109.
- Paul Pichler & Gerhard Sorger & Stefan Niemann, 2011. "Public debt, discretionary policy, and inflation persistence," 2011 Meeting Papers 887, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013.
"Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2011. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," NBER Working Papers 16782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2013.
"Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1477-1516, December.
- Campbell Leith & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1477-1516, December.
- Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-lewis, 2006. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," WEF Working Papers 0006, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
- Simon Wren-Lewis & Campbell Leith, 2007. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," Economics Series Working Papers 310, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2006_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Nov 2008.
- Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-84, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991.
"On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004.
"Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models,"
Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,15, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014.
"Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
- Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2012. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 65, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2012. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," POLIS Working Papers 168, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014.
"Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Rogoff, Kenneth & Reinhart, Carmen, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2015. "The Relationship Between Debt Level And Fiscal Sustainability In Organization For Economic Cooperation And Development Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 129-149, January.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996.
"On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
- Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993. "On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives," Papers 9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Mohsin, Muhammad & Jamaani, Fouad, 2023. "Green finance and the socio-politico-economic factors’ impact on the future oil prices: Evidence from machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
- Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2017. "The Sustainability of Italian Public Debt and Deficit," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 9-20, February.
- Ana Lazcano & Pedro Javier Herrera & Manuel Monge, 2023. "A Combined Model Based on Recurrent Neural Networks and Graph Convolutional Networks for Financial Time Series Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, January.
- Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2017. "Spanish Economic Growth, 1850–2015," Palgrave Studies in Economic History, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-319-58042-5, March.
- repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:277-298 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alfred Greiner & Uwe Köller & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Debt sustainability in the European Monetary Union: Theory and empirical evidence for selected countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 194-218, April.
- Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2014. "Government debt dynamics and the global financial crisis: Has anything changed in the EA12?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 64-66.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2024. "Persistence of the Sovereign Debt Components and Debt Sustainability: Some Evidence for the US and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11409, CESifo.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
- Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel, 2018. "Size-corrected inference in fiscal policy reaction functions: a three country assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 391-416, September.
- Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017.
"Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
- Jordi Paniagua & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability in EMU contries: A continued Fiscal commitment?," Working Papers 1608, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
- María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
- Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
- Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2021. "Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
- Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
- D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016.
"What is a Sustainable Public Debt?,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597,
Elsevier.
- Pablo D'Erasmo & Enrique Mendoza & Jing Zhang, 2015. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-033, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 16 Apr 2015.
- Pablo D'Erasmo & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jing Zhang, 2015. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," NBER Working Papers 21574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
- Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Cysne, Rubens Penha & Campos, Eduardo Lima, 2019. "Sustainability of the Brazilian public pebt an analysis using multicointegration," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 805, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
- Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan & Habib-Ur Rahman, 2021. "Analysis of Australia’s Fiscal Vulnerability to Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, June.
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015.
"“On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries”,"
IREA Working Papers
201512, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2015.
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries," Working Papers 15-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Okwoche Princewill U. & Iheonu Chimere O., 2021. "Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 50-73, June.
- Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.
- Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
- Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "Good Debt or Bad Debt?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11503, CESifo.
- İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
More about this item
Keywords
GDP; Income level; Mean reversion; Fractional integration; Persistence;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:83:y:2024:i:c:p:390-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.