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Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies

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  • Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A.
  • Carmona-González, Nieves
  • Sánchez-Martín, María-Pilar
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the persistence of the sovereign debt / GDP and sovereign debt / GDP per capita series for the five largest European economies and the US using fractional integration. We use historical data starting in 1800 for the US and the UK, in 1861 for Italy and in 1880 for Germany, France and Spain. The results indicate high degrees of persistence of debt-to-GDP and debt per capita ratios with clear evidence of no mean reversion in both debt indicators. We also find evidence of correlation with the primary deficit, supporting the idea that one of the causes of this debt persistence is precisely the primary deficit persistence. Empirical results support the need for a better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance debt control in the countries under examination.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Carmona-González, Nieves & Sánchez-Martín, María-Pilar & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2024. "Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 390-403.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:83:y:2024:i:c:p:390-403
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.06.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2024. "Persistence of the Sovereign Debt Components and Debt Sustainability: Some Evidence for the US and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11409, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Income level; Mean reversion; Fractional integration; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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