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Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Willems

    (Strategy, Policy and Review Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA)

  • Jeromin Zettelmeyer

    (Bruegel, Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

This article surveys the literature on sovereign debt sustainability from its origins in the mid-1980s to the present and focuses on four debates. First, we evaluate the shift from an accounting-based view of debt sustainability using government borrowing rates to a model-based view that uses stochastic discount rates. Second, we review empirical tests, focusing on the relationship between primary balances and debt. Third, we discuss debt sustainability in the presence of rollover risk. And fourth, we evaluate whether government borrowing costs below rates of growth (r

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Willems & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 75-93, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:14:y:2022:p:75-93
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-112921-110812
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    Cited by:

    1. Togan Eğrican, Aslı & Caner, Selçuk & Togan, Sübidey, 2022. "Reforming public debt governance in Turkey to reach debt sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1057-1076.
    2. Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
    3. Eccles, Peter & Grout, Paul & Zalewska, Anna & Siciliani, Paolo, 2023. "Open banking, shadow banking and regulation," Bank of England working papers 1039, Bank of England.
    4. António Afonso & Francisco Gomes-Pereira, 2024. "Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?," Working Papers REM 2024/0335, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Czeczeli, Vivien, 2023. "Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben [The sustainability of public debt in a low interest rate environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1361-1388.
    6. Michele Andreolli & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 701-772, June.
    7. Khaliq Ul Rehman & Ghulam Ghouse, 2024. "Examining Inflation Expectations within Asian Economies: Application of Wavelet Quantile Analysis towards Assessing Monetary Policy Credibility," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 6(1), pages 70-80.
    8. Powell, Andrew & Panizza, Ugo, 2023. "Debt Reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13290, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank credibility; debt crises; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; fiscal-monetary interactions; sovereign debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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