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Valuing the urban hukou in China: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design for housing prices

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  • Chen, Yu
  • Shi, Shaobin
  • Tang, Yugang

Abstract

This paper explores the demand side of hukou (household registration) acquisition in China by estimating the market valuation of urban hukou. Based on Jinan City’s acquiring the hukousby purchasinghouses policy, this paper uses houses with a floor area slightly larger and slightly smaller than the minimum required as the treatment and control groups, respectively, to implement a regression discontinuity design. The results show that residents’ willingness to pay for urban hukou in Jinan City was approximately 90,000–126,000 yuan in 2017. We also find great heterogeneity in different housing submarkets; the value of hukou is much higher in immigrant-dominated housing markets and top primary school districts. Our findings are robust to parametric and nonparametric estimates and different model specifications. We perform falsification tests by assuming a false policy introduction date and placebo tests based on rental data. Our analysis offers insights for hukou system reform and public services provision.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu & Shi, Shaobin & Tang, Yugang, 2019. "Valuing the urban hukou in China: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design for housing prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:141:y:2019:i:c:s0304387818309520
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102381
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    8. Liu, Qi & Liu, Shilei & Liu, Zhaoyang & Xu, Jintao & Kontoleon, Andreas, 2024. "A regression discontinuity assessment of the differential impacts of China’s Natural Forest Protection Program across forestland property right regimes," EfD Discussion Paper 24-10, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    9. Qiu, Huanguang & Hong, Junqiao & Wang, Xiangrui & Filipski, Mateusz, 2021. "Home Sweet Home: Impacts of Living Conditions on Rural-Urban Labor Migration Using Evidence from a Housing Lottery," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315308, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    14. Guowen Chen & Stephen B. DeLoach & T. M. Tonmoy Islam, 2023. "Precautionary savings and rural‐to‐urban migration: Evidence from Chinese hukou status," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1215-1233, October.
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    16. Le Wen & Krishna P. Paudel & Youhua Chen & Qinying He, 2021. "Urban segregation and consumption inequality: Does hukou conversion matter in China?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2298-2322, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hukou system; Willingness to pay for hukous; Acquiring hukous by purchasing houses; Regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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