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A regression discontinuity assessment of the differential impacts of China’s Natural Forest Protection Program across forestland property right regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Qi

    (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China)

  • Liu, Shilei

    (School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China)

  • Liu, Zhaoyang

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge)

  • Xu, Jintao

    (National School of Development, Peking University)

  • Kontoleon, Andreas

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of China’s Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) on forest cover in four Chinese provinces. The NFPP represents one of the world’s largest-scale forest conservation/restoration programs in terms of its sheer budget size and geographical coverage. Understanding the heterogeneous impact of the policy on different landowners is important to evaluating its viability and success. This paper presents the first rigorous assessment of the program’s performance by comparing its impacts on forestland held by state-owned forest enterprises (SOFEs) and village collectives. We use the spatial regression discontinuity approach to better identify the impact caused by the program per se, rather than by other possible correlated confounding factors. Our results find that the NFPP has a moderately positive effect on forest cover on average over both types of forestland holders. Moreover, we find that the program has a greater positive effect on collective forests than on state forests, even though the program’s financial support for the former is not as strong as that for the latter. Our empirical findings provide unique insights that contribute to the highly controversial and ongoing debate on property right reform of China’s state-owned forests.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Qi & Liu, Shilei & Liu, Zhaoyang & Xu, Jintao & Kontoleon, Andreas, 2024. "A regression discontinuity assessment of the differential impacts of China’s Natural Forest Protection Program across forestland property right regimes," EfD Discussion Paper 24-10, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2024_010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    2. Benedict Probst & Ariel BenYishay & Andreas Kontoleon & Tiago N. P. Reis, 2020. "Impacts of a large-scale titling initiative on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(12), pages 1019-1026, December.
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    5. Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo & Higuera-Mendieta, Iván, 2019. "Protected Areas under Weak Institutions: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 585-596.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forest conservation and restoration; China’s Natural Forest Protection Program; policy impact evaluation; forestland property right regimes; spatial regression discontinuity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P31 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Socialist Enterprises and Their Transitions
    • P32 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Collectives; Communes; Agricultural Institutions
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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