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Conflict and counterinsurgency aid: Drawing sectoral distinctions

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  • Child, Travers Barclay

Abstract

We examine the impact of counterinsurgency aid on conflict in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2009. To enable this analysis we combine unique aid project data from NATO, household data from the Afghan government, and conflict data from US government sources. Our panel data analysis accounts for district and time period fixed effects across 398 districts and 57 months. Projects in the health sector successfully promote stability, whereas those in the education sector actually provoke conflict. Our findings are robust to reverse causation, confounding aid programs, and other sources of endogeneity. The results shed new perspective on the ‘hearts and minds’ theory commonly discussed in this vein of inquiry.

Suggested Citation

  • Child, Travers Barclay, 2019. "Conflict and counterinsurgency aid: Drawing sectoral distinctions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:141:y:2019:i:c:s0304387818302499
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Travers Barclay Child, 2020. "Losing Hearts & Minds: Aid and Ideology," HiCN Working Papers 328, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Jung, Woojin, 2023. "Mapping community development aid: Spatial analysis in Myanmar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Raphael J. Nawrotzki & Verena Gantner & Jana Balzer & Thomas Wencker & Sabine Brüntrup-Seidemann, 2022. "Strategic Allocation of Development Projects in Post-Conflict Regions: A Gender Perspective for Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Sarah Langlotz, 2021. "Foreign Interventions and Community Cohesion in Times of Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 352, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Kumar, Dushyant & Roy Chowdhury, Prabal, 2022. "Winning hearts and minds in conflict-ridden areas: Development as a signal of benevolence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign aid; Development; Insurgency; Conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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