Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger

Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policyinterventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households' welfare andproductivity. However, cash transfers may also trigger appropriation or looting of cash or assets. The expansion ofgovernment programs may further attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. To investigate the net effect across theseforces, this paper studies the impact of cash transfers on conflict in Niger. The analysis relies on the large-scalerandomization of a government-led cash transfer program among nearly 4,000 villages over seven years, combined withgeo-referenced conflict events that draw on media and nongovernmental organization reports from a wide variety ofinternational and domestic sources. The findings show that cash transfers did not result in greater pacification but—ifanything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events, which were to a large extent driven by terrorist attacks byforeign rebel groups (such as Boko Haram) that could have incentives to “sabotage” successful government programs.