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Community Preferences, Insurgency, and the Success of Reconstruction Spending

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Abstract

A model of reconstruction spending by an occupying force is developed, in which the local population may have different preferences over the allocation of spending than the occupier. When the spending allocation is misaligned with local preferences an insurgency among some members of the community may result. Depending on the effectiveness of the insurgency, local opposition may constrain the ability of the occupier to implement its most preferred spending allocation. In equilibrium, the occupier may tolerate some level of insurgency to approach its ideal, but naive insistence on a most preferred allocation may lead to fewer projects of any kind being completed. The model suggests that winning the hearts and minds of a local population is less a question of how much money is invested in reconstruction than of how that money is allocated across projects of different kinds.

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  • David Scoones & Travers Barclay Child, 2012. "Community Preferences, Insurgency, and the Success of Reconstruction Spending," Department Discussion Papers 1202, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicddp:1202
    Note: ISSN 1914-2838
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    1. Scoones David, 2013. "Winning Hearts and Minds: Public Good Provision in the Shadow of Insurgency," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 17-31, April.
    2. Zürcher, Christoph, 2017. "What Do We (Not) Know About Development Aid and Violence? A Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 506-522.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development and insurgency; conflict;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation

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