IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/chfecr/v4y2016i1d10.1186_s40589-016-0035-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The choice of pension and retirement systems when post-1960s baby boomers start to retire in China

Author

Listed:
  • Hualei Yang

    (China Agricultural University)

Abstract

Background Around 2015, with the alternation of population generation, post-1960s baby boomers start to retire and post-1990s and 2000s baby busters successively enter into labor market in China, which has led to the decrease of working-age population, the increase of pension burden. Methods We use dynamic programming method by improving the traditional OLG model. Results This paper finds that a combination of immediately delayed retirement and accumulated pension system should be implemented if based on the goal of maximizing output, while a combination of undelayed retirement and accumulated pension system should be implemented if based on the goal of maximizing utility. Certainly, with using efficiency of elements unchanged, with the decrease of working-age population caused by the alternation of population generation, the increase of pension burden and the disappearance of capital dividend, a sharp decline of future economic growth cannot be changed no matter what kind of pension and retirement systems are implemented. Conclusions In view of the substitutability of family utility and social output and synthesizing reform resistance, a combination of gradually delayed retirement and accumulative pension system should be implemented. At the same time, on the premise of stabilizing short-term economic situation, we should look for a new engine for economic development by system reform in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Hualei Yang, 2016. "The choice of pension and retirement systems when post-1960s baby boomers start to retire in China," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:chfecr:v:4:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1186_s40589-016-0035-x
    DOI: 10.1186/s40589-016-0035-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40589-016-0035-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40589-016-0035-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adriaan Kalwij & Arie Kapteyn & Klaas Vos, 2010. "Retirement of Older Workers and Employment of the Young," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(4), pages 341-359, November.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    3. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    5. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    6. Franklin A Michello & William F Ford, 2006. "The Unemployment Effects of Proposed Changes in Social Security's “Normal Retirement Age”," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 38-46, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng Shen & James Yang, 2021. "A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    2. Xiaoran Huang & Pixin Gong & Marcus White, 2022. "Study on Spatial Distribution Equilibrium of Elderly Care Facilities in Downtown Shanghai," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhen Hu & James Yang, 2021. "Does Delayed Retirement Crowd Out Workforce Welfare? Evidence in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    2. Shaukat, Badiea & Zhu, Qigui & Khan, M. Ijaz, 2019. "Real interest rate and economic growth: A statistical exploration for transitory economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    3. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Siskova, M. & Kuhn, M. & Prettner, K. & Prskawetz, A., 2023. "Does human capital compensate for population decline?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    5. Zheng Shen & James Yang, 2021. "A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    6. Sodiq Arogundade & Mduduzi Biyase & Hinaunye Eita, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries:Does local Economic Conditions Matter?," Economic Development and Well-being Research Group Working Paper Series edwrg-01-2021, University of Johannesburg, College of Business and Economics, revised 2021.
    7. Gregorio Gimenez & Luis Vargas-Montoya, 2021. "ICT Use and Successful Learning: The Role of the Stock of Human Capital," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1683-1705, July.
    9. Jonathan F Cogliano & Roberto Veneziani & Naoki Yoshihara, 2024. "The dynamics of international exploitation," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 56(5), pages 1420-1446, August.
    10. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel Henderson & Romain Houssa, 2014. "Significant drivers of growth in Africa," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 339-354, December.
    11. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    12. de Silva, Tiloka & Tenreyroa, Silvana, 2017. "Population control policies and fertility convergence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86158, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Ángel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2024. "Cross‐country data on skills and the quality of schooling: A selective survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 3-26, February.
    14. Nikita Céspedes & Nelson Ramirez-Rondán, 2014. "Total Factor Productivity Estimation in Peru: Primal and Dual Approaches," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 37(73), pages 9-39.
    15. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    16. Koji Tokimatsu & Louis Dupuy & Nick Hanley, 2019. "Using Genuine Savings for Climate Policy Evaluation with an Integrated Assessment Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 281-307, January.
    17. Feyrer James D, 2008. "Convergence by Parts," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-35, July.
    18. Barnabé Walheer, 2016. "Multi-Sector Nonparametric Production-Frontier Analysis of the Economic Growth and the Convergence of the European Countries," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 498-524, October.
    19. Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited," PGDA Working Papers 9012, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    20. Nicolas Abad & Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," Working Papers hal-04577278, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:chfecr:v:4:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1186_s40589-016-0035-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.