IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v11y2021i4p21582440211054488.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Delayed Retirement Crowd Out Workforce Welfare? Evidence in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Hu
  • James Yang

Abstract

Does delayed retirement crowd out the welfare of the workforce? To answer this question, a dynamic optimization framework is established to simulate the impact of delayed retirement on the welfare of the working population over time. Simulations are conducted based on practical and feasible parameters. Delayed retirement was found to improve the welfare of the working population rather than crowding it out. Furthermore, the results are robust against changes in parameters and modes of supporting elderly individuals. In terms of policymaking, it is suggested that such facts be shared with the public and that a delayed retirement plan be introduced as soon as possible to manage the pension and retirement wave caused by post-1960s baby boomers. However, to ensure that the delayed retirement plan does not lead to a reduction in the welfare of the working population, increases in fertility costs and the pension replacement rate should be appropriately controlled.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Hu & James Yang, 2021. "Does Delayed Retirement Crowd Out Workforce Welfare? Evidence in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:11:y:2021:i:4:p:21582440211054488
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440211054488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440211054488
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440211054488?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Gruber & Kevin Milligan & David A. Wise, 2009. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 14647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2010. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub08-1, June.
    3. Zou Tieding & Ye Hang, 2016. "Retirement delay unified or differentiated—based on the interaction between pension deficit and labor market," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2003. "The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 419-434, August.
    5. Holz, Carsten A., 2006. "New capital estimates for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-185.
    6. Martins, Pedro S. & Novo, Alvaro A. & Portugal, Pedro, 2009. "Increasing the Legal Retirement Age: The Impact on Wages, Worker Flows and Firm Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 4187, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Alicia Munnell & April Wu, 2013. "Do Older Workers Squeeze Out Younger Workers?," Discussion Papers 13-011, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Juan Lacomba & Francisco Lagos, 2010. "Postponing the legal retirement age," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 357-369, July.
    9. Melika Ben Salem & Didier Blanchet & Antoine Bozio & Muriel Roger, 2010. "Labor Force Participation by the Elderly and Employment of the Young: The Case of France," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, pages 119-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
    11. Breyer Friedrich & Hupfeld Stefan, 2010. "On the Fairness of Early-Retirement Provisions," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 60-77, February.
    12. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1997. "Intratemporal Substitution And Government Spending," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 605-609, November.
    13. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:60-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Magnani, Riccardo, 2011. "A general equilibrium evaluation of the sustainability of the new pension reforms in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 5-35, March.
    16. John Bongaarts, 2004. "Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, March.
    17. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1998. "Government Expenditures and the Permanent-Income Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 719-730, July.
    18. Adriaan Kalwij & Arie Kapteyn & Klaas Vos, 2010. "Retirement of Older Workers and Employment of the Young," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(4), pages 341-359, November.
    19. Yuehong Tian & Xianglian Zhao, 2016. "Stochastic Forecast of the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 81-84, May.
    21. Bovenberg, A L, 2003. "Financing Retirement in the European Union," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 10(6), pages 713-734, November.
    22. Zhu, Xi & Whalley, John & Zhao, Xiliang, 2014. "Intergenerational transfer, human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 275-283.
    23. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    24. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    25. Lachance, Marie-Eve, 2008. "Pension reductions: can welfare be preserved by delaying retirement?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 157-177, July.
    26. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Qi Yang, 2019. "Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, February.
    27. Franklin A Michello & William F Ford, 2006. "The Unemployment Effects of Proposed Changes in Social Security's “Normal Retirement Age”," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 38-46, April.
    28. Jonathan Gruber & Kevin Milligan, 2010. "Do Elderly Workers Substitute for Younger Workers in the United States?," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, pages 345-360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Han, Joseph, 2020. "The effects of delayed mandatory retirement on elderly and youth employment," KDI Policy Forum 277, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
    30. Holz, Carsten A., 2006. "Response to Gregory C. Chow's "New Capital Estimates for China: Comments"," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 193-197.
    31. Galasso, Vincenzo, 2008. "Postponing retirement: the political effect of aging," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2157-2169, October.
    32. David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 286-305, June.
    33. Luciano Fanti, 2014. "Raising the Mandatory Retirement Age and its Effect on Long-run Income and Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) Pensions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 619-645, November.
    34. Miyazaki, Koichi, 2014. "The effects of the raising-the-official-pension-age policy in an overlapping generations economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 329-332.
    35. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Peng Feng & Mengyuan Zhu, 2018. "Stochastic Assessments of Urban Employees’ Pension Plan of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng Shen & James Yang, 2021. "A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    2. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Shuangyue Sun, 2019. "Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Qi Yang, 2019. "Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Min Le & Xinrong Xiao & Dragan Pamučar & Qianling Liang, 2021. "A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Said Outlioua & Abdesselam Fazouane, 2023. "Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 89-108, February.
    6. Hualei Yang, 2016. "The choice of pension and retirement systems when post-1960s baby boomers start to retire in China," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Xiaohua Chen & Zaigui Yang, 2019. "Stochastically Assessing the Financial Sustainability of Individual Accounts in the Urban Enterprise Employees’ Pension Plan in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Keuschnigg, Christian & Fisher, Walter, 2011. "Life-Cycle Unemployment, Retirement and Parametric Pension Reform," Economics Working Paper Series 1119, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    9. Jin Hu & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Juncheng Sun, 2022. "The Impact of the Two-Child Policy on the Pension Shortfall in China: A Case Study of Anhui Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Walter Fisher & Christian Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform and labor market incentives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 769-803, March.
    11. Irene Ferrari & Jan Kabátek & Todd Morris, 2023. "Longer careers: A barrier to hiring and coworker advancement?," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 14, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    12. Allen, Steven G., 2023. "Demand for older workers: What do we know? What do we need to learn?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    13. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Pascucci, Francesco, 2020. "Pension policies in a model with endogenous fertility," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 109-125, January.
    14. Nathalie Mathieu-Bolh & Xavier Pautrel, 2014. "Environmental taxation, health and the life-cycle," Working Papers hal-00990256, HAL.
    15. Hans FEHR, 2010. "Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age," EcoMod2010 259600055, EcoMod.
    16. Werner Eichhorst & Tito Boeri & An De Coen & Vincenzo Galasso & Michael Kendzia & Nadia Steiber, 2014. "How to combine the entry of young people in the labour market with the retention of older workers?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    17. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00930936 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Partha Sen, 2020. "Postponing Retirement and Social Security in a Two Sector Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8751, CESifo.
    19. Tian, Ying & Ma, Haitao & Tunio, Fayaz Hussain, 2024. "Evaluating the impact of social security contribution rate, delayed retirement age, and employment rate on pension replacement rate: An overlapping generation (OLG) model analysis," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    20. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    21. Nguyen, Cuong, 2019. "Simulation of the Costs and Benefits of Delayed Retirement: Evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 106180, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:11:y:2021:i:4:p:21582440211054488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.