IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v160y2022ics0960077922003666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the risk of pandemic outbreaks across municipalities with mathematical descriptors based on age and mobility restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Carballosa, Alejandro
  • Balsa-Barreiro, José
  • Boullosa, Pablo
  • Garea, Adrián
  • Mira, Jorge
  • Miramontes, Ángel
  • Muñuzuri, Alberto P.

Abstract

By March 14th 2022, Spain is suffering the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. All the previous waves have been intimately related to the degree of imposed mobility restrictions and its consequent release. Certain factors explain the incidence of the virus across regions revealing the weak locations that probably require some medical reinforcements. The most relevant ones relate with mobility restrictions by age and administrative competence, i.e., spatial constrains. In this work, we aim to find a mathematical descriptor that could identify the critical communities that are more likely to suffer pandemic outbreaks and, at the same time, to estimate the impact of different mobility restrictions. We analyze the incidence of the virus in combination with mobility flows during the so-called second wave (roughly from August 1st to November 30th, 2020) using a SEIR compartmental model. After that, we derive a mathematical descriptor based on linear stability theory that quantifies the potential impact of becoming a hotspot. Once the model is validated, we consider different confinement scenarios and containment protocols aimed to control the virus spreading. The main findings from our simulations suggest that the confinement of the economically non-active individuals may result in a significant reduction of risk, whose effects are equivalent to the confinement of the total population. This study is conducted across the totality of municipalities in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Carballosa, Alejandro & Balsa-Barreiro, José & Boullosa, Pablo & Garea, Adrián & Mira, Jorge & Miramontes, Ángel & Muñuzuri, Alberto P., 2022. "Assessing the risk of pandemic outbreaks across municipalities with mathematical descriptors based on age and mobility restrictions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:160:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922003666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077922003666
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112156?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Enrico Bertuzzo & Lorenzo Mari & Damiano Pasetto & Stefano Miccoli & Renato Casagrandi & Marino Gatto & Andrea Rinaldo, 2020. "The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. José Balsa-Barreiro & Alfredo J. Morales & Rubén C. Lois-González & Ãtila Bueno, 2021. "Mapping Population Dynamics at Local Scales Using Spatial Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Morteza Maleki & Mohsen Bahrami & Monica Menendez & Jose Balsa-Barreiro, 2022. "Social Behavior and COVID-19: Analysis of the Social Factors behind Compliance with Interventions across the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-26, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    2. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    3. Masum, Mohammad & Masud, M.A. & Adnan, Muhaiminul Islam & Shahriar, Hossain & Kim, Sangil, 2022. "Comparative study of a mathematical epidemic model, statistical modeling, and deep learning for COVID-19 forecasting and management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Basnarkov, Lasko, 2021. "SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Mishra, A.M. & Purohit, S.D. & Owolabi, K.M. & Sharma, Y.D., 2020. "A nonlinear epidemiological model considering asymptotic and quarantine classes for SARS CoV-2 virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Elvina Merkaj & Raffaella Santolini, 2021. "National Policies In Response To The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case Of Friuli-Venezia-Giulia And Umbria," Working Papers 456, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    8. Vladimir Shepelev & Aleksandr Glushkov & Ivan Slobodin & Yuri Cherkassov, 2023. "Measuring and Modelling the Concentration of Vehicle-Related PM2.5 and PM10 Emissions Based on Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Kabir, K.M. Ariful, 2022. "Dynamic analysis of mean-field and fractional-order epidemic vaccination strategies by evolutionary game approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Faïçal Ndaïrou & Iván Area & Delfim F. M. Torres, 2020. "Mathematical Modeling of Japanese Encephalitis under Aquatic Environmental Effects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-14, October.
    11. Rabih Ghostine & Mohamad Gharamti & Sally Hassrouny & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "Mathematical Modeling of Immune Responses against SARS-CoV-2 Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-13, September.
    12. Usama H. Issa & Ashraf Balabel & Mohammed Abdelhakeem & Medhat M. A. Osman, 2021. "Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Zhu, Ligang & Li, Xiang & Xu, Fei & Yin, Zhiyong & Jin, Jun & Liu, Zhilong & Qi, Hong & Shuai, Jianwei, 2022. "Network modeling-based identification of the switching targets between pyroptosis and secondary pyroptosis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    14. Castañeda, Antonio Rafael Selva & Ramirez-Torres, Erick Eduardo & Valdés-García, Luis Eugenio & Morandeira-Padrón, Hilda María & Yanez, Diana Sedal & Montijano, Juan I. & Cabrales, Luis Enrique Bergue, 2023. "Modified SEIR epidemic model including asymptomatic and hospitalized cases with correct demographic evolution," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    15. Margherita Carletti & Roberto Pancrazi, 2021. "Geographic Negative Correlation of Estimated Incidence between First and Second Waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, January.
    16. Rabih Ghostine & Mohamad Gharamti & Sally Hassrouny & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "An Extended SEIR Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Sinitsyn, E. V. & Tolmachev, A. V. & Ovchinnikov, A. S., 2020. "Socio-economic factors in the spread of SARS-COV-2 across Russian regions," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), pages 129-145.
    18. Alberto Olivares & Ernesto Staffetti, 2021. "Optimal Control Applied to Vaccination and Testing Policies for COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Ahmad, Shabir & Ullah, Aman & Al-Mdallal, Qasem M. & Khan, Hasib & Shah, Kamal & Khan, Aziz, 2020. "Fractional order mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Berta, P. & Bratti, M. & Fiorio, C.V. & Pisoni, E. & Verzillo, S., 2021. "Administrative border effects in Covid-19 related mortality," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 21/21, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:160:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922003666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.