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Geographic Negative Correlation of Estimated Incidence between First and Second Waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy

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  • Margherita Carletti

    (Department DISPeA, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, 61029 Urbino (Pu), Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Roberto Pancrazi

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Warwick CV47AL, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

In this short communication, we investigate whether the intensity of the second wave of infection from SARS-CoV-2 that hit Italy in October–November–December 2020 is related to the intensity of the first wave, which took place in March–April 2020. We exploit the variation of the wave intensities across the 107 Italian provinces. Since the first wave has affected not only different regions, but also different provinces of the same region, at a heterogenous degree, this comparison allows useful insights to be drawn about the characteristics of the virus. We estimate a strong negative correlation between the new daily infections among provinces during the first and second waves and show that this result is robust to different specifications. This empirical result can be of inspiration to biologists on the nature of collective immunity underlying COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Carletti & Roberto Pancrazi, 2021. "Geographic Negative Correlation of Estimated Incidence between First and Second Waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:133-:d:477398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Enrico Bertuzzo & Lorenzo Mari & Damiano Pasetto & Stefano Miccoli & Renato Casagrandi & Marino Gatto & Andrea Rinaldo, 2020. "The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Macak, 2021. "Stability of Dependencies of Contingent Subgroups with Merged Groups: Vaccination Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-12, November.

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