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The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

Author

Listed:
  • Enrico Bertuzzo

    (Universitá Ca’ Foscari Venezia
    European Centre for Living Technology)

  • Lorenzo Mari

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Damiano Pasetto

    (Universitá Ca’ Foscari Venezia)

  • Stefano Miccoli

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Renato Casagrandi

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Marino Gatto

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Andrea Rinaldo

    (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
    Universitá di Padova)

Abstract

The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Bertuzzo & Lorenzo Mari & Damiano Pasetto & Stefano Miccoli & Renato Casagrandi & Marino Gatto & Andrea Rinaldo, 2020. "The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18050-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Eleonora Cutrini & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Unraveling spatial patterns of COVID‐19 in Italy: Global forces and local economic drivers," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(S1), pages 73-108, November.
    2. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    3. Bonaccorsi, Giovanni & Scotti, Francesco & Pierri, Francesco & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2024. "Targeted policies and household consumption dynamics: Evidence from high-frequency transaction data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 111-134.
    4. Sebastien Bourdin & Sevgi Eda Tuzcu & Esra Satıcı, 2023. "Explaining COVID‐19 vaccine uptake: A spatial sociodemographic study in Turkey," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 307-329, April.
    5. Berta, P. & Bratti, M. & Fiorio, C.V. & Pisoni, E. & Verzillo, S., 2021. "Administrative border effects in Covid-19 related mortality," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 21/21, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Merkaj, Elvina & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "Italian national policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia and Umbria Regions," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(4), pages 287-293.
    7. Zhang, Junyi & Zhang, Runsen & Ding, Hongxiang & Li, Shuangjin & Liu, Rui & Ma, Shuang & Zhai, Baoxin & Kashima, Saori & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2021. "Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 37-57.
    8. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    9. Carballosa, Alejandro & Balsa-Barreiro, José & Boullosa, Pablo & Garea, Adrián & Mira, Jorge & Miramontes, Ángel & Muñuzuri, Alberto P., 2022. "Assessing the risk of pandemic outbreaks across municipalities with mathematical descriptors based on age and mobility restrictions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.
    11. Armando Cartenì & Furio Cascetta & Luigi Di Francesco & Felisia Palermo, 2021. "Particulate Matter Short-Term Exposition, Mobility Trips and COVID-19 Diffusion: A Correlation Analyses for the Italian Case Study at Urban Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Willem Boterman, 2023. "Population density and SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Comparing the geography of different waves in the Netherlands," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(8), pages 1377-1402, June.
    13. Zou, Hao & Sheng, Dian & Jiang, Jiehui, 2024. "Impact of trans-regional travel-related testing on epidemic spreading," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 643(C).
    14. Margherita Carletti & Roberto Pancrazi, 2021. "Geographic Negative Correlation of Estimated Incidence between First and Second Waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, January.
    15. Elvina Merkaj & Raffaella Santolini, 2021. "National Policies In Response To The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case Of Friuli-Venezia-Giulia And Umbria," Working Papers 456, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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