IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v156y2022ics0960077921011383.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mahapatra, D.P.
  • Triambak, S.

Abstract

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In light of the present COVID-19 pandemic, there is a pressing need to better understand observed epidemic growth with multiple peak structures, preferably using first-principles methods. Along the lines of our previous work [Physica A 574, 126014 (2021)], here we apply 2D random-walk Monte Carlo calculations to better understand COVID-19 spread through contact interactions. Lockdown scenarios and all other control interventions are imposed through mobility restrictions and a regulation of the infection rate within the stochastically interacting population. The susceptible, infected and recovered populations are tracked over time, with daily infection rates obtained without recourse to the solution of differential equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahapatra, D.P. & Triambak, S., 2022. "Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:156:y:2022:i:c:s0960077921011383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111785
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077921011383
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111785?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ewen Callaway & Heidi Ledford, 2021. "How bad is Omicron? What scientists know so far," Nature, Nature, vol. 600(7888), pages 197-199, December.
    2. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2023. "Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: An application to coronavirus," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 35-51.
    3. Triambak, S. & Mahapatra, D.P., 2021. "A random walk Monte Carlo simulation study of COVID-19-like infection spread," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    4. Alexander Karaivanov, 2020. "A social network model of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-33, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pájaro, Manuel & Fajar, Noelia M. & Alonso, Antonio A. & Otero-Muras, Irene, 2022. "Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2022. "Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    2. Kim, Dongwoo & Lee, Young Jun, 2022. "Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Chuanlin Ning & Han Wang & Jing Wu & Qinwei Chen & Huacheng Pei & Hao Gao, 2022. "The COVID-19 Vaccination and Vaccine Inequity Worldwide: An Empirical Study Based on Global Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-13, April.
    4. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic," Papers 2104.02318, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    6. Sean Elliott & Christian Gourieroux, 2020. "Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model," Papers 2012.11542, arXiv.org.
    7. Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2021. "Optimally Targeting Interventions in Networks during a Pandemic: Theory and Evidence from the Networks of Nursing Homes in the United States," Papers 2110.10230, arXiv.org.
    8. Rozan, E.A. & Bouzat, S. & Kuperman, M.N., 2023. "Testing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks through mean-field models considering the social structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    9. Bertogg, Ariane & Koos, Sebastian, 2021. "Changes of Social Networks during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Who is affected and what are its Consequences for Psychological Strain?," Working Papers 07, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    10. Pascoal, R. & Rocha, H., 2022. "Population density impact on COVID-19 mortality rate: A multifractal analysis using French data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    11. Sean ELLIOTT & Christian GOURIEROUX, 2020. "Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model," Working Papers 2020-31, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    12. Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2023. "Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 847-883, April.
    13. Frederik Plesner Lyngse & Laust Hvas Mortensen & Matthew J. Denwood & Lasse Engbo Christiansen & Camilla Holten Møller & Robert Leo Skov & Katja Spiess & Anders Fomsgaard & Ria Lassaunière & Morten Ra, 2022. "Household transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Denmark," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    14. L. S. Sanna Stephan, 2023. "A Trimming Estimator for the Latent-Diffusion-Observed-Adoption Model," Papers 2309.01471, arXiv.org.
    15. Panicker, Akhil & Sasidevan, V., 2024. "Social adaptive behavior and oscillatory prevalence in an epidemic model on evolving random geometric graphs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    16. Fu, Xinjie & Wang, JinRong, 2024. "Dynamic behaviors and non-instantaneous impulsive vaccination of an SAIQR model on complex networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).
    17. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    19. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The Backward Art of Slowing the Spread? Congregation Efficiencies during COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 28737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Fanglei Zuo & Hassan Abolhassani & Likun Du & Antonio Piralla & Federico Bertoglio & Leire Campos-Mata & Hui Wan & Maren Schubert & Irene Cassaniti & Yating Wang & Josè Camilla Sammartino & Rui Sun & , 2022. "Heterologous immunization with inactivated vaccine followed by mRNA-booster elicits strong immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:156:y:2022:i:c:s0960077921011383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.