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Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic

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  • Nick James
  • Max Menzies

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the state of community activity, and the financial index performance across 20 countries. First, we analyze which countries behaved similarly in 2020 with respect to one of three multivariate time series: daily COVID-19 cases, Apple mobility data and national equity index price. Next, we study the trajectories of all three of these attributes in conjunction to determine which exhibited greater similarity. Finally, we investigate whether country financial indices or mobility data responded quicker to surges in COVID-19 cases. Our results indicate that mobility data and national financial indices exhibited the most similarity in their trajectories, with financial indices responding quicker. This suggests that financial market participants may have interpreted and responded to COVID-19 data more efficiently than governments. Further, results imply that efforts to study community mobility data as a leading indicator for financial market performance during the pandemic were misguided.

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  • Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic," Papers 2104.02318, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2104.02318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
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    3. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2022. "Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    4. Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020--2021," Papers 2112.06552, arXiv.org.

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