IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v164y2022ics0960077922008505.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year study

Author

Listed:
  • Pájaro, Manuel
  • Fajar, Noelia M.
  • Alonso, Antonio A.
  • Otero-Muras, Irene

Abstract

The level of unpredictability of the COVID-19 pandemics poses a challenge to effectively model its dynamic evolution. In this study we incorporate the inherent stochasticity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread by reinterpreting the classical compartmental models of infectious diseases (SIR type) as chemical reaction systems modeled via the Chemical Master Equation and solved by Monte Carlo Methods. Our model predicts the evolution of the pandemics at the level of municipalities, incorporating for the first time (i) a variable infection rate to capture the effect of mitigation policies on the dynamic evolution of the pandemics (ii) SIR-with-jumps taking into account the possibility of multiple infections from a single infected person and (iii) data of viral load quantified by RT-qPCR from samples taken from Wastewater Treatment Plants. The model has been successfully employed for the prediction of the COVID-19 pandemics evolution in small and medium size municipalities of Galicia (Northwest of Spain).

Suggested Citation

  • Pájaro, Manuel & Fajar, Noelia M. & Alonso, Antonio A. & Otero-Muras, Irene, 2022. "Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:164:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922008505
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112671
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077922008505
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112671?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cumsille, Patricio & Rojas-Díaz, Óscar & de Espanés, Pablo Moisset & Verdugo-Hernández, Paula, 2022. "Forecasting COVID-19 Chile’ second outbreak by a generalized SIR model with constant time delays and a fitted positivity rate," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1-18.
    2. M. Pájaro & I. Otero-Muras & C. Vázquez & A. A. Alonso, 2019. "Transient hysteresis and inherent stochasticity in gene regulatory networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Cai, Yongli & Kang, Yun & Wang, Weiming, 2017. "A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 305(C), pages 221-240.
    4. Mahapatra, D.P. & Triambak, S., 2022. "Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Jones, Andrew & Strigul, Nikolay, 2021. "Is spread of COVID-19 a chaotic epidemic?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongpo Hu & Xuexue Liu & Kun Li & Ming Liu & Xiao Yu, 2023. "Codimension-Two Bifurcations of a Simplified Discrete-Time SIR Model with Nonlinear Incidence and Recovery Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-24, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huyi Wang & Ge Zhang & Tao Chen & Zhiming Li, 2023. "Threshold Analysis of a Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Model with Logistic Birth and Nonlinear Incidence," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2020. "A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with logistic growth and general nonlinear incidence rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    3. Qi, Haokun & Zhang, Shengqiang & Meng, Xinzhu & Dong, Huanhe, 2018. "Periodic solution and ergodic stationary distribution of two stochastic SIQS epidemic systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 223-241.
    4. Zhou, Baoquan & Han, Bingtao & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2021. "Ergodic stationary distribution and extinction of a hybrid stochastic SEQIHR epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine strategies and pre-existing immunity under discrete Markov switching," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 410(C).
    5. Yu, Xingwang & Yuan, Sanling & Zhang, Tonghua, 2019. "Survival and ergodicity of a stochastic phytoplankton–zooplankton model with toxin-producing phytoplankton in an impulsive polluted environment," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 249-264.
    6. Fu, Xiaoming, 2019. "On invariant measures and the asymptotic behavior of a stochastic delayed SIRS epidemic model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1008-1023.
    7. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing, 2020. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic cholera model with imperfect vaccination," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    8. Xu, Jiang & Chen, Tao & Wen, Xiangdan, 2021. "Analysis of a Bailey–Dietz model for vector-borne disease under regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    9. Wen, Buyu & Teng, Zhidong & Li, Zhiming, 2018. "The threshold of a periodic stochastic SIVS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 532-549.
    10. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2020. "Stationary distribution of a stochastic cholera model between communities linked by migration," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    11. Zhu, Peican & Wang, Xinyu & Li, Shudong & Guo, Yangming & Wang, Zhen, 2019. "Investigation of epidemic spreading process on multiplex networks by incorporating fatal properties," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 512-524.
    12. Wang, Weiming & Cai, Yongli & Ding, Zuqin & Gui, Zhanji, 2018. "A stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model incorporating Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 921-936.
    13. Gabrick, Enrique C. & Sayari, Elaheh & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Szezech, José D. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Viana, Ricardo L. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Batista, , 2023. "Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    14. Feng, Tao & Qiu, Zhipeng & Meng, Xinzhu & Rong, Libin, 2019. "Analysis of a stochastic HIV-1 infection model with degenerate diffusion," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 437-455.
    15. Cen Song & Sijia Zhou & Kyle Hunt & Jun Zhuang, 2022. "Comprehensive Evolution Analysis of Public Perceptions Related to Pediatric Care: A Sina Weibo Case Study (2013–2020)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    16. Yu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Jingmeng & Zhang, Yun & Cong, Xuya & Li, Xiaobo & Mostafa, Almetwally M., 2024. "Mathematical modeling and simulation for COVID-19 with mutant and quarantined strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Luo, Yantao & Zhang, Long & Teng, Zhidong & Zheng, Tingting, 2021. "Analysis of a general multi-group reaction–diffusion epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and temporary acquired immunity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 428-455.
    18. Nannyonga, Betty & Ssebuliba, Joseph & Nakakawa, Juliet & Nabiyonga, Betty & Mugisha, J.Y.T., 2018. "To apprehend or not to apprehend: A mathematical model for ending student strikes in a university," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 607-621.
    19. Wang, Lei & Wang, Kai & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar, 2018. "Nontrivial periodic solution for a stochastic brucellosis model with application to Xinjiang, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 522-537.
    20. Acuña-Zegarra, Manuel Adrian & Díaz-Infante, Saúl, 2018. "Stochastic asymptotic analysis of a multi-host model with vector transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 243-260.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:164:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922008505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.