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Bifurcation and basin stability of an SIR epidemic model with limited medical resources and switching noise

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  • Wei, Wei
  • Xu, Wei
  • Song, Yi
  • Liu, Jiankang

Abstract

Considering the sudden change of environmental disturbance, a stochastic susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with Markov jump and the limited medical resources is proposed. Firstly, by a bifurcation analysis of the deterministic SIR model, the maximal medical resource tipping point can be detected to adjust and optimize the medical resource allocation. Then, the impact of environmental disturbance on the basin stability is explored via the first escape probability(FEP). Based on the stochastic averaging of Markov jump process, the SIR epidemic system with switching random excitation is transferred into a probability-weighted Itô stochastic differential equation. Furthermore, the theoretical FEP is solved by the finite difference method and the validity is verified by numerical simulation. It is worth noting that the increase of noise intensity can decrease the basin stability of SIR model, and the existence of switching noise makes a difference in the basin stability compared with the epidemic system without switching intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei, Wei & Xu, Wei & Song, Yi & Liu, Jiankang, 2021. "Bifurcation and basin stability of an SIR epidemic model with limited medical resources and switching noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:152:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921007773
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111423
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabrick, Enrique C. & Sayari, Elaheh & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Szezech, José D. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Viana, Ricardo L. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Batista, , 2023. "Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Song, Yi & Xu, Wei & Wei, Wei & Niu, Lizhi, 2023. "Dynamical transition of phenotypic states in breast cancer system with Lévy noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 627(C).
    3. Liu, Chao & Tian, Yilin & Chen, Peng & Cheung, Lora, 2024. "Stochastic dynamic effects of media coverage and incubation on a distributed delayed epidemic system with Lévy jumps," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Zheng, Qianqian & Shen, Jianwei & Pandey, Vikas & Guan, Linan & Guo, Yantao, 2023. "Turing instability in a network-organized epidemic model with delay," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Turkyilmazoglu, Mustafa, 2022. "A restricted epidemic SIR model with elementary solutions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    6. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Turkyilmazoglu, Mustafa, 2022. "An extended epidemic model with vaccination: Weak-immune SIRVI," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 598(C).

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