IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v141y2020ics0960077920307591.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the impact of the media campaign and rapid testing for COVID-19 as an optimal control problem in East Java, Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Aldila, Dipo

Abstract

Without any vaccine or medical intervention to cure the infected individual from COVID-19, the non-pharmaceutical intervention become the most reasonable intervention against the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we proposed a deterministic model governed by a system of nonlinear differential equations which consider the intervention of media campaign to increase human awareness, and rapid testing to track the undetected cases in the field. Analysis of the autonomous model shows the existence of transcritical bifurcation at a basic reproduction number equal to one. We estimate our parameter using the incidence data from East Java, Indonesia. Using these parameters, we analyze the sensitivity of the parameters in determining the size of the basic reproduction number. An optimal control problem which transforms media campaign and rapid testing as a time-dependent control was conducted also in this article. Cost-effectiveness analysis using the Infection averted ratio (IAR) and the Average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) conducted to analyze the best strategies to eradicate COVID-19 spread. We observe that the combination of the media campaign and rapid testing as time-dependent interventions reduces the number of an infected individual significantly and also minimizes the economic burden due to these strategies in East Java.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldila, Dipo, 2020. "Analyzing the impact of the media campaign and rapid testing for COVID-19 as an optimal control problem in East Java, Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:141:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920307591
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110364
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920307591
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110364?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Folashade B Agusto & Ibrahim M ELmojtaba, 2017. "Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of malaria/visceral leishmaniasis co-infection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, February.
    2. Higazy, M., 2020. "Novel fractional order SIDARTHE mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Kumar, Anuj & Srivastava, Prashant K. & Dong, Yueping & Takeuchi, Yasuhiro, 2020. "Optimal control of infectious disease: Information-induced vaccination and limited treatment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    4. Sarkar, Kankan & Khajanchi, Subhas & Nieto, Juan J., 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Xiangnan & Sun, HongGuang & Tick, Geoffrey R. & Wei, Wei & Jin, Bin, 2020. "Applicability of time fractional derivative models for simulating the dynamics and mitigation scenarios of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Singh, Sarbjit & Parmar, Kulwinder Singh & Kumar, Jatinder & Makkhan, Sidhu Jitendra Singh, 2020. "Development of new hybrid model of discrete wavelet decomposition and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in application to one month forecast the casualties cases of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Atangana, Abdon, 2022. "Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19: A study of new variant Omicron," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    2. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khajji, Bouchaib & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Elhia, Mohamed & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Fractional optimal control problem for an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Zhou, Jiaying & Ye, Yong & Arenas, Alex & Gómez, Sergio & Zhao, Yi, 2023. "Pattern formation and bifurcation analysis of delay induced fractional-order epidemic spreading on networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Kalantari, Mahdi, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic using optimal singular spectrum analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Jahanshahi, Hadi & Munoz-Pacheco, Jesus M. & Bekiros, Stelios & Alotaibi, Naif D., 2021. "A fractional-order SIRD model with time-dependent memory indexes for encompassing the multi-fractional characteristics of the COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Mayer Alvo & Jingrui Mu, 2023. "COVID-19 Data Analysis Using Bayesian Models and Nonparametric Geostatistical Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, March.
    7. Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa & Cadenas, Erasmo, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting by the extraction of the multifractal patterns of time series through the multiplicative cascade technique," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Sharma, Natasha & Verma, Atul Kumar & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2021. "Spatial network based model forecasting transmission and control of COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    9. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Nie, Shiqian & Lei, Xiaochun, 2023. "A time-dependent model of the transmission of COVID-19 variants dynamics using Hausdorff fractal derivative," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).
    12. Chayu Yang & Bo Deng, 2024. "Dynamics of Infectious Diseases Incorporating a Testing Compartment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Kabir, K.M. Ariful, 2022. "Dynamic analysis of mean-field and fractional-order epidemic vaccination strategies by evolutionary game approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    14. Junseok Kim, 2024. "Influence of Fractional Order on the Behavior of a Normalized Time-Fractional SIR Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-9, October.
    15. Sharafian, Amin & Kanesan, Jeevan & Khairuddin, Anis Salwa Mohd & Ramanathan, Anand & Sharifi, Alireza & Bai, Xiaoshan, 2023. "A novel approach to state estimation of HIV infection dynamics using fixed-time fractional order observer," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    16. Samad Noeiaghdam & Sanda Micula & Juan J. Nieto, 2021. "A Novel Technique to Control the Accuracy of a Nonlinear Fractional Order Model of COVID-19: Application of the CESTAC Method and the CADNA Library," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-26, June.
    17. Rabih Ghostine & Mohamad Gharamti & Sally Hassrouny & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "Mathematical Modeling of Immune Responses against SARS-CoV-2 Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-13, September.
    18. Bandekar, Shraddha Ramdas & Ghosh, Mini, 2022. "A co-infection model on TB - COVID-19 with optimal control and sensitivity analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1-31.
    19. Ghosh, M. & Olaniyi, S. & Obabiyi, O.S., 2020. "Mathematical analysis of reinfection and relapse in malaria dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    20. Gaetano Perone, 2022. "Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(6), pages 917-940, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:141:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920307591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.