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Modelling and forecasting of new cases, deaths and recover cases of COVID-19 by using Vector Autoregressive model in Pakistan

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  • Khan, Firdos
  • Saeed, Alia
  • Ali, Shaukat

Abstract

COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019 has now spread around the world causes damage to human life and economy. Pakistan is also severely effected by COVID-19 with 202,955 confirmed cases and total deaths of 4,118. Vector Autoregressive time series models was used to forecast new daily confirmed cases, deaths and recover cases for ten days. Our forecasted model results show maximum of 5,363/day new cases with 95% confidence interval of 3,013–8,385 on 3rd of July, 167/day deaths with 95% confidence interval of 112–233 and maximum recoveries 4,016/day with 95% confidence interval of 2,182–6,405 in the next 10 days. The findings of this research may help government and other agencies to reshape their strategies according to the forecasted situation. As the data generating process is identified in terms of time series models, then it can be updated with the arrival of new data and provide forecasted scenario in future.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Firdos & Saeed, Alia & Ali, Shaukat, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting of new cases, deaths and recover cases of COVID-19 by using Vector Autoregressive model in Pakistan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305853
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yousaf, Muhammad & Zahir, Samiha & Riaz, Muhammad & Hussain, Sardar Muhammad & Shah, Kamal, 2020. "Statistical analysis of forecasting COVID-19 for upcoming month in Pakistan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Xingyu Zhang & Yuanyuan Liu & Min Yang & Tao Zhang & Alistair A Young & Xiaosong Li, 2013. "Comparative Study of Four Time Series Methods in Forecasting Typhoid Fever Incidence in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
    3. Chimmula, Vinay Kumar Reddy & Zhang, Lei, 2020. "Time series forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada using LSTM networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Salgotra, Rohit & Gandomi, Mostafa & Gandomi, Amir H, 2020. "Time Series Analysis and Forecast of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India using Genetic Programming," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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