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First hitting time about solution for an uncertain fractional differential equation and application to an uncertain risk index model

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  • Jin, Ting
  • Zhu, Yuanguo

Abstract

Uncertain fractional differential equation with memory and hereditary characteristics is a useful way to better model the uncertain dynamic system. Firstly, the solution of an uncertain fractional differential equation with the Caputo type is considered and uncertain distributions of their first hitting time is investigated. On the basis of the α-path, two different first hitting time theorems for uncertain distributions are proposed. Secondly, by the predictor-corrector method, the numerical method is designed. A nonlinear example is provided for validating the availability of the proposed algorithm. Then, as an application of the first hitting time, a novel uncertain risk index model is presented and a formula of risk index under our model is derived accordingly. Lastly, the numerical algorithm of risk index is designed and numerical calculations for the risk index are illustrated with regard to different parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Ting & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2020. "First hitting time about solution for an uncertain fractional differential equation and application to an uncertain risk index model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:137:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920302368
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109836
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ziqiang Lu & Hongyan Yan & Yuanguo Zhu, 2019. "European option pricing model based on uncertain fractional differential equation," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 199-217, June.
    2. Tian, Miao & Yang, Xiangfeng & Zhang, Yi, 2019. "Barrier option pricing of mean-reverting stock model in uncertain environment," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 126-143.
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    4. Jin, Ting & Sun, Yun & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2019. "Extreme values for solution to uncertain fractional differential equation and application to American option pricing model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    5. Lu, Ziqiang & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2019. "Numerical approach for solution to an uncertain fractional differential equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 137-148.
    6. Yang, Xiangfeng & Zhang, Zhiqiang & Gao, Xin, 2019. "Asian-barrier option pricing formulas of uncertain financial market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 79-86.
    7. Kai Yao & Baoding Liu, 2020. "Parameter estimation in uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Ting & Ding, Hui & Xia, Hongxuan & Bao, Jinfeng, 2021. "Reliability index and Asian barrier option pricing formulas of the uncertain fractional first-hitting time model with Caputo type," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Jia, Lifen & Chen, Wei, 2020. "Knock-in options of an uncertain stock model with floating interest rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Lu, Qinyun & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2021. "LQ optimal control of fractional-order discrete-time uncertain systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Weiwei Wang & Dan A. Ralescu, 2021. "Option pricing formulas based on uncertain fractional differential equation," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 471-495, December.
    5. Shi, Gang & Gao, Jinwu, 2021. "European Option Pricing Problems with Fractional Uncertain Processes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Jin, Ting & Yang, Xiangfeng, 2021. "Monotonicity theorem for the uncertain fractional differential equation and application to uncertain financial market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 203-221.
    7. Sheng, Yuhong & Yao, Kai & Qin, Zhongfeng, 2020. "Continuity and variation analysis of fractional uncertain processes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Li, Bo & Zhang, Ranran & Jin, Ting & Shu, Yadong, 2021. "Parametric approximate optimal control of uncertain differential game with application to counter terror," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. He, Liu & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2024. "Nonparametric estimation for uncertain fractional differential equations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Liu He & Yuanguo Zhu & Ziqiang Lu, 2023. "Parameter estimation for uncertain fractional differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 103-122, March.
    11. Shu, Yadong & Li, Bo, 2022. "Existence and uniqueness of solutions to uncertain fractional switched systems with an uncertain stock model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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