IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v96y2012icp4-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Generation risk assessment in volatile conditions with wind, hydro, and natural gas units

Author

Listed:
  • Sahin, Cem
  • Shahidehpour, Mohammad
  • Erkmen, Ismet

Abstract

This paper studies a generating company (GENCO)’s midterm (a few months to a year) scheduling payoffs and risks in volatile operating conditions. The proposed algorithm considers the integration of intermittent wind units into a GENCO’s generation assets and coordinates the GENCO’s hourly wind generation schedule with that of natural gas (NG) units (with volatile gas prices) and hydro units (with water inflow forecast) for maximizing the GENCO’s payoff. The proposed midterm GENCO model applies market price forecasts to the risk-constrained stochastic price-based unit commitment (PBUC) for calculating the GENCO’s risk in energy and ancillary services markets. The proposed PBUC minimizes the cost of (a) NG contracts, storage, startup and shutdown, (b) startup and shutdown of cascaded hydro units, and (c) penalty for defaulting on the scheduled power delivery. Simulation results show that the diversification of generating assets including bilateral contracts (BCs) could enhance the GENCO’s midterm planning by increasing the expected payoff and decreasing the financial risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahin, Cem & Shahidehpour, Mohammad & Erkmen, Ismet, 2012. "Generation risk assessment in volatile conditions with wind, hydro, and natural gas units," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 4-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:96:y:2012:i:c:p:4-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911007021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tuohy, Aidan & Meibom, Peter & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. D’Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo & Prattico, Flavio, 2015. "Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 290-297.
    2. Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali & Canizes, Bruno & Vale, Zita & Morais, Hugo, 2013. "Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 667-677.
    3. Mauro Lafratta & Matthew Leach & Rex B. Thorpe & Mark Willcocks & Eve Germain & Sabeha K. Ouki & Achame Shana & Jacquetta Lee, 2021. "Economic and Carbon Costs of Electricity Balancing Services: The Need for Secure Flexible Low-Carbon Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Hany Elgamal, Ahmed & Kocher-Oberlehner, Gudrun & Robu, Valentin & Andoni, Merlinda, 2019. "Optimization of a multiple-scale renewable energy-based virtual power plant in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Suomalainen, Kiti & Pritchard, Geoffrey & Sharp, Basil & Yuan, Ziqi & Zakeri, Golbon, 2015. "Correlation analysis on wind and hydro resources with electricity demand and prices in New Zealand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 445-462.
    6. Khan, Muhammad T. & Thopil, George Alex & Lalk, Jorg, 2016. "Review of proposals for practical power sector restructuring and reforms in a dynamic electricity supply industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 326-335.
    7. Wei Zhang & Ruoyao Liu & Xinyu Yang, 2019. "Study on Operating Strategy of Electric–Gas Combined System Considering the Improvement of Dispatchability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, December.
    8. Han, Chanok & Vinel, Alexander, 2022. "Reducing forecasting error by optimally pooling wind energy generation sources through portfolio optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    9. Wen, Le & Suomalainen, Kiti & Sharp, Basil & Yi, Ming & Sheng, Mingyue Selena, 2022. "Impact of wind-hydro dynamics on electricity price: A seasonal spatial econometric analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    10. Balkhair, Khaled S. & Rahman, Khalil Ur, 2017. "Sustainable and economical small-scale and low-head hydropower generation: A promising alternative potential solution for energy generation at local and regional scale," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 378-391.
    11. Diagoupis, Theodoros D. & Andrianesis, Panagiotis E. & Dialynas, Evangelos N., 2016. "A planning approach for reducing the impact of natural gas network on electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 189-198.
    12. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    13. Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial & Kaya, Murat & Sahin, Guvenc, 2017. "Competition, risk and learning in electricity markets: An agent-based simulation study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1000-1011.
    14. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Cai, Siqin & Guo, Dongliang & Xu, Bo, 2022. "Facing the uncertainty of renewable energy production: Production decisions of a power plant with different risk attitudes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 1237-1247.
    15. Chertkov, Michael & Backhaus, Scott & Lebedev, Vladimir, 2015. "Cascading of fluctuations in interdependent energy infrastructures: Gas-grid coupling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 541-551.
    16. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khambadkone, Ashwin M. & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 71-82.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tim Felling & Björn Felten & Paul Osinski & Christoph Weber, 2023. "Assessing Improved Price Zones in Europe: Flow-Based Market Coupling in Central Western Europe in Focus," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(6), pages 71-112, November.
    2. Bingke Yan & Bo Wang & Lin Zhu & Hesen Liu & Yilu Liu & Xingpei Ji & Dichen Liu, 2015. "A Novel, Stable, and Economic Power Sharing Scheme for an Autonomous Microgrid in the Energy Internet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    4. Fang, Yuchen & Han, Jianpei & Du, Ershun & Jiang, Haiyang & Fang, Yujuan & Zhang, Ning & Kang, Chongqing, 2024. "Electric energy system planning considering chronological renewable generation variability and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    5. Xiaohua Zhang & Jun Xie & Zhengwei Zhu & Jianfeng Zheng & Hao Qiang & Hailong Rong, 2016. "Smart Grid Cost-Emission Unit Commitment via Co-Evolutionary Agents," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Andrychowicz, Mateusz & Olek, Blazej & Przybylski, Jakub, 2017. "Review of the methods for evaluation of renewable energy sources penetration and ramping used in the Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2015. Case study for Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 703-714.
    7. Felten, Björn & Weber, Christoph, 2018. "The value(s) of flexible heat pumps – Assessment of technical and economic conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1292-1319.
    8. Misconel, S. & Leisen, R. & Mikurda, J. & Zimmermann, F. & Fraunholz, C. & Fichtner, W. & Möst, D. & Weber, C., 2022. "Systematic comparison of high-resolution electricity system modeling approaches focusing on investment, dispatch and generation adequacy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. De Vos, K. & Stevens, N. & Devolder, O. & Papavasiliou, A. & Hebb, B. & Matthys-Donnadieu, J., 2019. "Dynamic dimensioning approach for operating reserves: Proof of concept in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 272-285.
    10. Aguilar, Diego & Quinones, Jhon J. & Pineda, Luis R. & Ostanek, Jason & Castillo, Luciano, 2024. "Optimal scheduling of renewable energy microgrids: A robust multi-objective approach with machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    11. Govind Joshi & Salman Mohagheghi, 2021. "Optimal Operation of Combined Energy and Water Systems for Community Resilience against Natural Disasters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    12. La Fata, Alice & Brignone, Massimo & Procopio, Renato & Bracco, Stefano & Delfino, Federico & Barbero, Giulia & Barilli, Riccardo, 2024. "An energy management system to schedule the optimal participation to electricity markets and a statistical analysis of the bidding strategies over long time horizons," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    13. Keane, A. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Denny, E. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2011. "Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2925-2934, May.
    14. Zhu, Xu & Yang, Jun & Pan, Xueli & Li, Gaojunjie & Rao, Yingqing, 2020. "Regional integrated energy system energy management in an industrial park considering energy stepped utilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    15. Leisen, Robin & Radek, Julian & Weber, Christoph, 2024. "Modeling combined-cycle power plants in a detailed electricity market model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    16. Hao Chen & Chi Kong Chyong & Jia-Ning Kang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2018. "Economic dispatch in the electricity sector in China: potential benefits and challenges ahead," Working Papers EPRG 1819, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    17. Johnson, Samuel C. & Papageorgiou, Dimitri J. & Mallapragada, Dharik S. & Deetjen, Thomas A. & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Webber, Michael E., 2019. "Evaluating rotational inertia as a component of grid reliability with high penetrations of variable renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 258-271.
    18. Devine, Mel T. & Bertsch, Valentin, 2018. "Examining the benefits of load shedding strategies using a rolling-horizon stochastic mixed complementarity equilibrium model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 643-658.
    19. Atakan, Semih & Gangammanavar, Harsha & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2022. "Towards a sustainable power grid: Stochastic hierarchical planning for high renewable integration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 381-391.
    20. Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul & Golestaneh, Faranak & Gooi, Hoay Beng & Lin, Jeremy & Bavafa, Farhad & Terzija, Vladimir, 2016. "Corrective economic dispatch and operational cycles for probabilistic unit commitment with demand response and high wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 634-651.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:96:y:2012:i:c:p:4-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.