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Review of the methods for evaluation of renewable energy sources penetration and ramping used in the Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2015. Case study for Poland

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  • Andrychowicz, Mateusz
  • Olek, Blazej
  • Przybylski, Jakub

Abstract

On 30th of June 2015 the European Network of Transmission System Operators for electricity (ENTSO-e) published the ENTSO-e Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SOAF) report providing information about impact of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) on power system and potential lack of flexibility in power systems of thirty seven European countries. The flexibility is measured using Residual Load (RL) which equals actual demand decreased by solar, wind and must-run generation, and which is covered by dispatchable power units (generally thermal and hydro). According to the report, the RL for Europe is strongly irregular and unpredictable among member states. As a consequence, high generation ramping is forecasted which leads to necessity of high system flexibility. The results are presented as a distribution of the RES penetration including must-run and distribution of the hourly RES ramps. However, the methodology used by ENTSO-e is questionable.

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  • Andrychowicz, Mateusz & Olek, Blazej & Przybylski, Jakub, 2017. "Review of the methods for evaluation of renewable energy sources penetration and ramping used in the Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2015. Case study for Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 703-714.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:703-714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.069
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    2. Florian Ziel, 2020. "The energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction," Papers 2005.14670, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.

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