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Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME

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  • Mayer, Martin János
  • Yang, Dazhi
  • Szintai, Balázs

Abstract

Inspecting the literature, much effort has been placed on the verification of irradiance forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as such forecasts are thought to have profound implications on the photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts, which in turn affects grid operators' confidence in integrating such power into the electricity grid. However, perhaps due to the proprietary nature of PV plants and lack of access to state-of-the-art NWP model output, only few have had the chance to conduct head-to-head comparisons of global mesoscale and regional downscaled NWP models, in terms of how their irradiance forecast inaccuracies propagate to PV power forecasts. In this regard, this work presents such a study, in which irradiance and PV power forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' High-Resolution (HRES) and Météo-France's Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) models are thoroughly verified against the ground-based measurements from 32 research-grade radiometry stations and 94 actual PV plants in Hungary. A wide range of techniques and case studies concerning verification is herein considered, including variance ratio analysis, Murphy–Winkler decomposition, point-versus-areal verification, and seasonal verification. Despite that the results are too numerous to be summarized in a few sentences, the overarching observation from the verification exercise is that the performance of irradiance forecasts can only be used to infer that of PV power forecasts to a certain extent, which contrasts the conventional wisdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi & Szintai, Balázs, 2023. "Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:352:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923013223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
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    5. Mattei, M. & Notton, G. & Cristofari, C. & Muselli, M. & Poggi, P., 2006. "Calculation of the polycrystalline PV module temperature using a simple method of energy balance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 553-567.
    6. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Impact of the tilt angle, inverter sizing factor and row spacing on the photovoltaic power forecast accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    7. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Calibration of deterministic NWP forecasts and its impact on verification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 981-991.
    9. Yang, Dazhi & Kleissl, Jan, 2023. "Summarizing ensemble NWP forecasts for grid operators: Consistency, elicitability, and economic value," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1640-1654.
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