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Multi-step ahead forecasting of wind vector for multiple wind turbines based on new deep learning model

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  • Zhang, Zhendong
  • Dai, Huichao
  • Jiang, Dingguo
  • Yu, Yi
  • Tian, Rui

Abstract

Obtaining wind speed and direction predictions with high accuracy is of vital significance for the utilization of wind energy. This research focuses on three problems: how to realize multiple station prediction, multi-step ahead prediction and wind vector prediction. Firstly, a 4-D time series variable scene is proposed for multi-step ahead forecasting of multiple station wind vector. Then, a wind vector prediction model (CM-G) based on Convolutional Minimum Gate Memory Neural Network and Graph Convolution Neural Network is constructed to improve the prediction accuracy. Further, three multi-step ahead forecasting modes are compared and their advantages, disadvantages and application scenarios are analyzed. Finally, the model and method proposed in this study are applied to two datasets in Tibet, China. The experimental results and conclusions are as follows: (1) The prediction accuracy of CM-G proposed in this study is higher than that of the existing state-of-the-art model in 90 % of the metrics. (2) From single-step to multi-step ahead forecasting, the prediction accuracy of wind vector gradually decreases. (3) In wind vector prediction, the prediction accuracy of wind speed is higher than that of wind direction. (4) The direction of accuracy improvement for multiple stations is relatively consistent with the average wind direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhendong & Dai, Huichao & Jiang, Dingguo & Yu, Yi & Tian, Rui, 2024. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of wind vector for multiple wind turbines based on new deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:304:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224017377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131964
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