IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v341y2023ics0306261923004683.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What is the long-term demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks?

Author

Listed:
  • Forsberg, Charles

Abstract

Liquid hydrocarbons made from crude oil serve many functions: (1) a dense, easy-to-store, easy-to-transport energy source, (2) a method for daily-to-seasonal energy storage, (3) a chemical feedstock, (4) a chemical reducing agent and (5) a method to enhance high-temperature heat transfer in many furnaces and industrial processes. Liquid hydrocarbons can be produced and used without increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels if made from non-fossil feedstocks such as carbon dioxide or biomass. Understanding future liquid hydrocarbon demand is the starting point in assessing the viability of such options. Our assessment is that U.S. demand for liquid hydrocarbons is unlikely to go below the equivalent of 10 million barrels per day of crude oil but could be as high as 20 million barrels per day. The costs to replace liquid hydrocarbons increases rapidly at lower liquid hydrocarbon consumption rates. Hydrocarbon biofuels from cellulosic feedstocks can meet such demands if produced with large external inputs of heat and hydrogen. Options based on more limited feedstocks (starches, plant oils, sugars, etc.) can’t meet such demands.

Suggested Citation

  • Forsberg, Charles, 2023. "What is the long-term demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:341:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923004683
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923004683
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121104?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dröes, Martijn I. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2021. "Wind turbines, solar farms, and house prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Song, Pengcheng & Ma, Xinxin & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Qin, 2021. "The influence of the SARS pandemic on asset prices," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Forsberg, C.W. & Dale, B.E. & Jones, D.S. & Hossain, T. & Morais, A.R.C. & Wendt, L.M., 2021. "Replacing liquid fossil fuels and hydrocarbon chemical feedstocks with liquid biofuels from large-scale nuclear biorefineries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    5. Nestor A. Sepulveda & Jesse D. Jenkins & Aurora Edington & Dharik S. Mallapragada & Richard K. Lester, 2021. "The design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonized power systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 506-516, May.
    6. Forsberg, Charles, 2023. "Low-cost crushed-rock heat storage with oil or salt heat transfer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jian & Wang, Zhenghui & Zhang, Yanni & Li, Yang & Tam, Wai Cheong & Kong, Depeng & Deng, Jun, 2024. "New insights into the ignition characteristics of liquid fuels on hot surfaces based on TG-FTIR," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    2. Md Monjur Hossain Bhuiyan & Ahmed Nazmus Sakib & Syed Ishmam Alawee & Talayeh Razzaghi, 2024. "Fueling the Future: A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Fuel Consumption Trends in U.S. Electricity Generation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-30, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Forsberg, Charles, 2023. "Low-cost crushed-rock heat storage with oil or salt heat transfer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    2. Xu, Qi & Liu, Kui, 2024. "Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    3. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Vassilis M. Charitopoulos & Mathilde Fajardy & Chi Kong Chyong & David M. Reiner, 2022. "The case of 100% electrification of domestic heat in Great Britain," Working Papers EPRG2206, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    5. Farah, Sleiman & Andresen, Gorm Bruun, 2024. "Investment-based optimisation of energy storage design parameters in a grid-connected hybrid renewable energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    6. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Davis, Dominic & Brear, Michael J., 2024. "Impact of short-term wind forecast accuracy on the performance of decarbonising wholesale electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Cosgrove, Paul & Roulstone, Tony & Zachary, Stan, 2023. "Intermittency and periodicity in net-zero renewable energy systems with storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 299-307.
    9. Risthaus, Kai & Linder, Marc & Schmidt, Matthias, 2022. "Experimental investigation of a novel mechanically fluidized bed reactor for thermochemical energy storage with calcium hydroxide/calcium oxide," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    10. Yong, Qingqing & Jin, Kaiyuan & Li, Xiaobo & Yang, Ronggui, 2023. "Thermo-economic analysis for a novel grid-scale pumped thermal electricity storage system coupled with a coal-fired power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    11. Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Liqun Peng & Denise L. Mauzerall & Yaofeng D. Zhong & Gang He, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of battery storage deployment strategies on decarbonization of provincial power systems in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Glenk, Gunther & Reichelstein, Stefan, 2021. "Intermittent versus dispatchable power sources: An integrated competitive assessment," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Wener, Natalia & Martinez-Boggio, Santiago & Favre, Federico & Curto-Risso, Pedro, 2024. "Zero-dimensional model of a pumped heat energy storage system with reciprocating machines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    16. Martin Staadecker & Julia Szinai & Pedro A. Sánchez-Pérez & Sarah Kurtz & Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez, 2024. "The value of long-duration energy storage under various grid conditions in a zero-emissions future," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Say, Kelvin & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Brown, Felix Gabriel & Wang, Changlong, 2023. "The economics of public transport electrification: A case study from Victoria, Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Sánchez-Pérez, P.A. & Staadecker, Martin & Szinai, Julia & Kurtz, Sarah & Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2022. "Effect of modeled time horizon on quantifying the need for long-duration storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    19. Steele, Amanda Harker & Sharma, Smriti & Pena Cabra, Ivonne & Clahane, Luke & Iyengar, Arun, 2023. "A tool for measuring the system cost of replacement energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    20. Bennett, Jeffrey A. & Fitts, Jeffrey P. & Clarens, Andres F., 2022. "Compressed air energy storage capacity of offshore saline aquifers using isothermal cycling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:341:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923004683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.