IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v300y2021ics0306261921007820.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using deep ensembles convolutional shared weight long short-term memory network

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Guanjun
  • Qin, Hui
  • Shen, Qin
  • Lyv, Hao
  • Qu, Yuhua
  • Fu, Jialong
  • Liu, Yongqi
  • Zhou, Jianzhong

Abstract

High-quality and reliable solar radiation spatiotemporal probabilistic prediction is very significant for the planning and management of solar energy. In this paper, convolutional shared weight long short-term memory network is proposed to deal with solar radiation spatiotemporal prediction problems. The model can minimize the training time of model without significantly reducing prediction accuracy. Furthermore, a spatiotemporal probabilistic prediction model that combines convolutional shared weight long short-term memory network and deep ensemble method is proposed to deal with the solar radiation probabilistic prediction problem. The model obtains the uncertainty estimation of predictands by adjusting the network structure and optimizes the uncertainty by employing a proper scoring rule. In addition, a combination of ensembles are used in the model to improve the robustness of probabilistic prediction. The new spatiotemporal probabilistic prediction model is applied to predict solar radiation in a real area of the United States. Five state-of-the-art models and seven evaluation indicators are used for comparation. The comparation results show the proposed model is able to provide accurate point prediction, reasonable prediction interval and reliable probabilistic prediction results for a whole area.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Guanjun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Qin & Lyv, Hao & Qu, Yuhua & Fu, Jialong & Liu, Yongqi & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2021. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using deep ensembles convolutional shared weight long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:300:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921007820
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117379
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921007820
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117379?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    2. Amrouche, Badia & Le Pivert, Xavier, 2014. "Artificial neural network based daily local forecasting for global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 333-341.
    3. Ehsan, Ali & Yang, Qiang, 2019. "State-of-the-art techniques for modelling of uncertainties in active distribution network planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1509-1523.
    4. Huang, Zhaojian & Mendis, Thushini & Xu, Shen, 2019. "Urban solar utilization potential mapping via deep learning technology: A case study of Wuhan, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 283-291.
    5. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2019. "Ensemble spatiotemporal forecasting of solar irradiation using variational Bayesian convolutional gate recurrent unit network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Badakhshan, Sobhan & Hajibandeh, Neda & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João.P.S., 2019. "Impact of solar energy on the integrated operation of electricity-gas grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 844-853.
    7. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    8. Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.
    9. Kong, Weicong & Jia, Youwei & Dong, Zhao Yang & Meng, Ke & Chai, Songjian, 2020. "Hybrid approaches based on deep whole-sky-image learning to photovoltaic generation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    10. Hejase, Hassan A.N. & Al-Shamisi, Maitha H. & Assi, Ali H., 2014. "Modeling of global horizontal irradiance in the United Arab Emirates with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 542-552.
    11. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Feng, Zhongkai & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2020. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal wind speed forecasting based on a variational Bayesian deep learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. Zhang, Zhendong & Ye, Lei & Qin, Hui & Liu, Yongqi & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Yin, Xingli & Li, Jie, 2019. "Wind speed prediction method using Shared Weight Long Short-Term Memory Network and Gaussian Process Regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 270-284.
    13. Tsvetkov, Nikolay Aleksandrovich & Krivoshein, Ujriy Olegovich & Tolstykh, Aleksandr Vital’yevich & Khutornoi, Andrey Nikolaevich & Boldyryev, Stanislav, 2020. "The calculation of solar energy used by hot water systems in permafrost region: An experimental case study for Yakutia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    14. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based LSTM-Convolutional Network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Dewangan, Chaman Lal & Singh, S.N. & Chakrabarti, S., 2020. "Combining forecasts of day-ahead solar power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    16. Liu, Guangbiao & Zhou, Jianzhong & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei & Yang, Yuqi & Sun, Na, 2019. "Advance short-term wind energy quality assessment based on instantaneous standard deviation and variogram of wind speed by a hybrid method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 643-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Zhang, Yi-Ming & Wang, Hao, 2023. "Multi-head attention-based probabilistic CNN-BiLSTM for day-ahead wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    3. Guanjun Liu & Chao Wang & Hui Qin & Jialong Fu & Qin Shen, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Elizabeth Michael, Neethu & Hasan, Shazia & Al-Durra, Ahmed & Mishra, Manohar, 2022. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting based on a novel Bayesian optimized deep Long Short-Term Memory neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    5. Zhou, Xing & Wu, Hegao & Cheng, Li & Huang, Quanshui & Shi, Changzheng, 2023. "A new draft tube shape optimisation methodology of introducing inclined conical diffuser in hydraulic turbine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Liu, Guanjun & Wang, Yun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Keyan & Liu, Shuai & Shen, Qin & Qu, Yuhua & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2023. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind speed based on multi-network deep ensembles method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 231-247.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2019. "Ensemble spatiotemporal forecasting of solar irradiation using variational Bayesian convolutional gate recurrent unit network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Carneiro, Tatiane C. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M., 2022. "Ridge regression ensemble of machine learning models applied to solar and wind forecasting in Brazil and Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    3. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Feng, Zhongkai & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2020. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal wind speed forecasting based on a variational Bayesian deep learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Fang, Ping & Fu, Wenlong & Wang, Kai & Xiong, Dongzhen & Zhang, Kai, 2022. "A compositive architecture coupling outlier correction, EWT, nonlinear Volterra multi-model fusion with multi-objective optimization for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    5. Zhao, Xinyu & Bai, Mingliang & Yang, Xusheng & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren & Chang, Juntao, 2021. "Short-term probabilistic predictions of wind multi-parameter based on one-dimensional convolutional neural network with attention mechanism and multivariate copula distribution estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Liu, Guanjun & Wang, Yun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Keyan & Liu, Shuai & Shen, Qin & Qu, Yuhua & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2023. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind speed based on multi-network deep ensembles method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 231-247.
    7. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    10. Tavakol Aghaei, Vahid & Ağababaoğlu, Arda & Bawo, Biram & Naseradinmousavi, Peiman & Yıldırım, Sinan & Yeşilyurt, Serhat & Onat, Ahmet, 2023. "Energy optimization of wind turbines via a neural control policy based on reinforcement learning Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    11. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    12. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Guanjun Liu & Chao Wang & Hui Qin & Jialong Fu & Qin Shen, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Shi, Jihao & Li, Junjie & Usmani, Asif Sohail & Zhu, Yuan & Chen, Guoming & Yang, Dongdong, 2021. "Probabilistic real-time deep-water natural gas hydrate dispersion modeling by using a novel hybrid deep learning approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    15. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    16. Ladislav Zjavka, 2021. "Photovoltaic Energy All-Day and Intra-Day Forecasting Using Node by Node Developed Polynomial Networks Forming PDE Models Based on the L-Transformation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    17. Bommidi, Bala Saibabu & Teeparthi, Kiran & Kosana, Vishalteja, 2023. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting using ICEEMDAN and transformer model with novel loss function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    18. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    19. Tawn, R. & Browell, J., 2022. "A review of very short-term wind and solar power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Ma, Long & Huang, Ling & Shi, Huifeng, 2023. "A novel spatial–temporal generative autoencoder for wind speed uncertainty forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:300:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921007820. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.