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Probabilistic real-time deep-water natural gas hydrate dispersion modeling by using a novel hybrid deep learning approach

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  • Shi, Jihao
  • Li, Junjie
  • Usmani, Asif Sohail
  • Zhu, Yuan
  • Chen, Guoming
  • Yang, Dongdong

Abstract

Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) has been widely used for the gas release and dispersion modeling, which however could not support real-time emergency response planning due to its high computation overhead. Surrogate models offer a potential alternative to rigorous computational approaches, however, as the point-estimation alternatives, the existing neural network-based surrogate models are not able to quantify the uncertainty of the released gas spatial concentration. This study aims to fill a gap by proposing an advanced hybrid probabilistic Convolutional-Variational Autoencoder-Variational Bayesian neural network (Conv-VAE-VBnn). Experimental study based on a benchmark simulation dataset was conducted. The results demonstrated the additional uncertainty information estimated by the proposed model contributes to reducing the harmful effect of too ‘confidence’ of the point-estimation models. In addition, the proposed model exhibits competitive accuracy with R2 = 0.94 compared and real-time capacity with inference time less than 1s. Latent size Nz = 2, noise σz=0.1 and Monte Carlo sampling number m = 500 to ensure the model’s real-time capacity, were also given. Overall, our proposed model could provide a reliable alternative for constructing a digital twin for emergency management during the exploration and exploitation of marine natural gas hydrate (NHG) in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Jihao & Li, Junjie & Usmani, Asif Sohail & Zhu, Yuan & Chen, Guoming & Yang, Dongdong, 2021. "Probabilistic real-time deep-water natural gas hydrate dispersion modeling by using a novel hybrid deep learning approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:219:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220326797
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119572
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