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Quantifying the impact of residential space heating electrification on the Texas electric grid

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  • White, Philip R.
  • Rhodes, Joshua D.
  • Wilson, Eric J.H.
  • Webber, Michael E.

Abstract

In this technical analysis, we studied the effects of complete electrification of space heating in the Texas residential sector on the energy consumption, peak power demand, and grid capacity utilization in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity grid. We utilized the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) ResStock tool to develop geographically representative housing stock models and the physics-based EnergyPlus modeling software to create an aggregate building stock energy model that represents the residential sector in the ERCOT operating region. In this aggregate building energy model, we replace all natural gas and other fossil-fuel furnaces with reversible electric heat pumps of varying efficiencies that can provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. We integrate spatially-resolved actual meteorological weather data with the building stock energy model to simulate a specific year (2016) of hourly-resolved energy usage in the ERCOT region. We find the annual electricity consumption, peak hourly power demand for each day, and load duration curves for each of 17 regions within ERCOT. From the base case, the absolute winter peak electrical power demand in the residential sector could increase by as much as 36%, or 12 GW. These results indicate that grid capacity would need to increase by 10 GW (a 25% increase for the residential sector) to accommodate a winter peaking residential sector. Though winter electricity consumption would increase for home heating, the annual amount of electricity consumption would stay roughly the same or decrease because the higher efficiency heat pumps provide more efficient cooling than the conventional air conditioners they also replace. Using average 2018 emissions rates, we estimate a change to standard efficiency heat pumps would lead to a 4.1% reduction of CO2 emissions and a 5.8% reduction of NOx emissions from the residential sector. There is no significant change in SOx emissions in our standard efficiency scenario, but in the high and ultra-high aggregate efficiency scenarios, SOx emissions are reduced by 8.3% and 15.0% respectively.

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  • White, Philip R. & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Wilson, Eric J.H. & Webber, Michael E., 2021. "Quantifying the impact of residential space heating electrification on the Texas electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921005559
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117113
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    4. Earle, Lieko & Maguire, Jeff & Munankarmi, Prateek & Roberts, David, 2023. "The impact of energy-efficiency upgrades and other distributed energy resources on a residential neighborhood-scale electrification retrofit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    5. Loprete, Jason & Trojanowski, Rebecca & Butcher, Thomas & Longtin, Jon & Assanis, Dimitris, 2024. "Enabling residential heating decarbonization through hydronic low-temperature thermal distribution using forced-air assistive devices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    6. Chenghao Wang & Jiyun Song & Dachuan Shi & Janet L. Reyna & Henry Horsey & Sarah Feron & Yuyu Zhou & Zutao Ouyang & Ying Li & Robert B. Jackson, 2023. "Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Byoung-Kuk Ju & Seung-Hoon Yoo & Chulwoo Baek, 2022. "Economies of Scale in City Gas Sector in Seoul, South Korea: Evidence from an Empirical Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Lee, Zachary E. & Max Zhang, K., 2022. "Unintended consequences of smart thermostats in the transition to electrified heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    9. Halloran, Claire & Lizana, Jesus & Fele, Filiberto & McCulloch, Malcolm, 2024. "Data-based, high spatiotemporal resolution heat pump demand for power system planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    10. Khosravani, Ali & DeHaan, Matthew & Billings, Blake W. & Powell, Kody M., 2024. "Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    11. Gorman, Will & Barbose, Galen & Pablo Carvallo, Juan & Baik, Sunhee & Miller, Chandler & White, Philip & Praprost, Marlena, 2023. "County-level assessment of behind-the-meter solar and storage to mitigate long duration power interruptions for residential customers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    12. Gunkel, Philipp Andreas & Kachirayil, Febin & Bergaentzlé, Claire-Marie & McKenna, Russell & Keles, Dogan & Jacobsen, Henrik Klinge, 2023. "Uniform taxation of electricity: incentives for flexibility and cost redistribution among household categories," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    13. Keskar, Aditya & Galik, Christopher & Johnson, Jeremiah X., 2023. "Planning for winter peaking power systems in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    14. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).

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