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Deep Learning to Forecast Solar Irradiance Using a Six-Month UTSA SkyImager Dataset

Author

Listed:
  • Ariana Moncada

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA)

  • Walter Richardson

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA)

  • Rolando Vega-Avila

    (CPS Energy, San Antonio, TX 78205, USA)

Abstract

Distributed PV power generation necessitates both intra-hour and day-ahead forecasting of solar irradiance. The UTSA SkyImager is an inexpensive all-sky imaging system built using a Raspberry Pi computer with camera. Reconfigurable for different operational environments, it has been deployed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Joint Base San Antonio, and two locations in the Canary Islands. The original design used optical flow to extrapolate cloud positions, followed by ray-tracing to predict shadow locations on solar panels. The latter problem is mathematically ill-posed. This paper details an alternative strategy that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to forecast irradiance directly from an extracted subimage surrounding the sun. Several different AI models are compared including Deep Learning and Gradient Boosted Trees. Results and error metrics are presented for a total of 147 days of NREL data collected during the period from October 2015 to May 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariana Moncada & Walter Richardson & Rolando Vega-Avila, 2018. "Deep Learning to Forecast Solar Irradiance Using a Six-Month UTSA SkyImager Dataset," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:8:p:1988-:d:160974
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Walter Richardson & Hariharan Krishnaswami & Rolando Vega & Michael Cervantes, 2017. "A Low Cost, Edge Computing, All-Sky Imager for Cloud Tracking and Intra-Hour Irradiance Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Javier Huertas Tato & Miguel Centeno Brito, 2018. "Using Smart Persistence and Random Forests to Predict Photovoltaic Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Zhencheng Fan & Zheng Yan & Shiping Wen, 2023. "Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence in Sustainability: A Review of SDGs, Renewable Energy, and Environmental Health," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira & Ramon Alcarria, 2023. "CyL-GHI: Global Horizontal Irradiance Dataset Containing 18 Years of Refined Data at 30-Min Granularity from 37 Stations Located in Castile and León (Spain)," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Nunes Maciel, Joylan & Javier Gimenez Ledesma, Jorge & Hideo Ando Junior, Oswaldo, 2024. "Hybrid prediction method of solar irradiance applied to short-term photovoltaic energy generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Lin, Fan & Zhang, Yao & Wang, Jianxue, 2023. "Recent advances in intra-hour solar forecasting: A review of ground-based sky image methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 244-265.
    7. Varaha Satra Bharath Kurukuru & Ahteshamul Haque & Mohammed Ali Khan & Subham Sahoo & Azra Malik & Frede Blaabjerg, 2021. "A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-35, August.
    8. Ajith, Meenu & Martínez-Ramón, Manel, 2023. "Deep learning algorithms for very short term solar irradiance forecasting: A survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2024. "Dataset for Machine Learning: Explicit All-Sky Image Features to Enhance Solar Irradiance Prediction," Data, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-12, September.
    10. Zang, Haixiang & Liu, Ling & Sun, Li & Cheng, Lilin & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2020. "Short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting based on a hybrid CNN-LSTM model with spatiotemporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 26-41.
    11. Cristian Crisosto & Eduardo W. Luiz & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2021. "Convolutional Neural Network for High-Resolution Cloud Motion Prediction from Hemispheric Sky Images," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-11, February.
    12. Izabela Rojek & Dariusz Mikołajewski & Adam Mroziński & Marek Macko, 2023. "Machine Learning- and Artificial Intelligence-Derived Prediction for Home Smart Energy Systems with PV Installation and Battery Energy Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-26, September.

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