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How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks

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  • Behm, Christian
  • Nolting, Lars
  • Praktiknjo, Aaron

Abstract

We present a method to create synthetic, weather-dependent, annual electricity load profiles for European countries in hourly resolution using artificial neural networks as a necessary basis for long-term forecasts. To this end, we train fully connected dense artificial neural networks with 5 hidden layers and 1,024 hidden nodes per layer using historic data for Germany from 2006 to 2015. Input parameters used in the model comprise calendrical information, annual peak loads and weather data. We benchmark our results against the current state-of-the-art method to generate synthetic load profiles used in mid-term adequacy forecasts published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators (entso-e). For validation year 2016, our approach shows a mean absolute percentage error of 2.8%, whereas the method as used by entso-e shows an average error of 4.8%. We then conduct forecasts for Germany, Sweden, Spain, and France using our synthetic load profiles for scenario year 2025 to demonstrate their pan-European applicability. Finally, we assess parameter variations that demonstrate high influences of outdoor temperatures and wind speed on the electricity load. Our approach can help to increase prediction accuracy of future electricity loads as electricity load profiles are a necessary input for these forecasts.

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  • Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s030626192031076x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115564
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    13. Ergun Yukseltan & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ayse H. Bilge & Ahmet Yucekaya, 2024. "An Overview of Electricity Consumption in Europe: Models for Prediction of the Electricity Usage for Heating and Cooling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 96-111, March.
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    17. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    18. Michael Meiser & Ingo Zinnikus, 2024. "A Survey on the Use of Synthetic Data for Enhancing Key Aspects of Trustworthy AI in the Energy Domain: Challenges and Opportunities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-29, April.
    19. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    20. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting," Papers 2408.00507, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    21. Dengyong Zhang & Haixin Tong & Feng Li & Lingyun Xiang & Xiangling Ding, 2020. "An Ultra-Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on Temperature-Factor-Weight and LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.

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