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Can we phase-out all of them? Probabilistic assessments of security of electricity supply for the German case

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  • Nolting, Lars
  • Praktiknjo, Aaron

Abstract

Against the backdrop of expansions of intermittent renewable energy capacity, planned nuclear phase-outs, and current debates on the additional mothballing of coal-fired power plants in central Europe, there is a substantial increase in uncertainty regarding security of electricity supply. In this context, we present a probabilistic and scenario-based analysis of impacts on security of supply for Germany as a case-study in the medium-term perspective (years 2020, 2022, and 2023). For our analysis, we introduce the energy security assessment module of the JERICHO energy system model from RWTH Aachen University. Our model allows for an hourly probabilistic simulation of security of supply and accounts for stochastic characteristics of (non-)availability of conventional generators, renewable feed-in, electricity demand, and import potentials from central-European countries. To increase the robustness of results, we use a comprehensive dataset of temperature, wind speeds, solar radiation and water levels from weather years 1986 to 2015 as input for our simulations. Our results indicate that Germany is unlikely to maintain its quasi-absolute levels of security of supply in the near future with a mean Loss of Load Expectation (LoLE) of up to 2.6 h in scenario year 2023. However, this does not necessarily imply that future levels of security of supply are insufficient. There is need for further assessments on identifying threshold levels for security of supply, which are economically efficient and acceptable for society. Our results also indicate that the sensitivity of security of supply for meteorological changes increases with reductions of conventional power plants. Finally, we demonstrate that the dependency of security of supply on imports from neighboring countries increases substantially calling for increased international coordination of national energy policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "Can we phase-out all of them? Probabilistic assessments of security of electricity supply for the German case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:263:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920302166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2022. "The complexity dilemma – Insights from security of electricity supply assessments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Heffron, Raphael J. & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Schöpf, Michael & Wagner, Jonathan & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2021. "The role of flexibility in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond: Contributing to a sustainable and resilient energy future in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Carrelhas, A.A.D. & Gato, L.M.C. & Henriques, J.C.C., 2023. "Peak shaving control in OWC wave energy converters: From concept to implementation in the Mutriku wave power plant," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Christina Kockel & Lars Nolting & Kevin Pacco & Carlo Schmitt & Albert Moser & Aaron Praktiknjo, 2022. "How Dependent Are European Power Systems and Economies on Natural Gas?—A Macroeconomic Optimization for Security of Electricity Supply," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Maike Spilger & Dennis Schneider & Christoph Weber, 2023. "Assessment of generation adequacy taking into account the dependence of the European power system on natural gas," EWL Working Papers 2303, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Mar 2023.

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