IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v91y2015icp151-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles

Author

Listed:
  • Hao, Han
  • Liu, Zongwei
  • Zhao, Fuquan
  • Li, Weiqi
  • Hang, Wen

Abstract

To address the energy and environmental concerns over the rapid growing vehicle ownership, China has newly implemented a wide range of mitigation measures over recent years. In this study, the baselines of energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions from China's passenger vehicles are updated by incorporating the impacts from the latest mitigation policies and associated vehicle fleet characteristics changes. The results indicate that GHG emissions from China's passenger vehicles were about 486 mt CO2e in 2014, accounting for roughly 5% of national total GHG emissions. Under Business-as-Usual scenario, GHG emissions will peak by 2027 at the level of 810 mt CO2e, and then decrease to 650 mt CO2e in 2050. The currently implemented mitigation measures, with fuel consumption regulation playing the essential role, have effectively offset the impacts from the fast growing passenger vehicle ownership. With all mitigation measures maximizing their impacts, GHG emissions can peak five years earlier at a 15% lower level.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi & Hang, Wen, 2015. "Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 151-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:91:y:2015:i:c:p:151-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215011299
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clerides, Sofronis & Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2008. "The effect of standards and fuel prices on automobile fuel economy: An international analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2657-2672, September.
    2. Wagner, David Vance & An, Feng & Wang, Cheng, 2009. "Structure and impacts of fuel economy standards for passenger cars in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3803-3811, October.
    3. Wang, Dawei & Zamel, Nada & Jiao, Kui & Zhou, Yibo & Yu, Shuhai & Du, Qing & Yin, Yan, 2013. "Life cycle analysis of internal combustion engine, electric and fuel cell vehicles for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 402-412.
    4. Tarroja, Brian & Shaffer, Brendan & Samuelsen, Scott, 2015. "The importance of grid integration for achievable greenhouse gas emissions reductions from alternative vehicle technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 504-519.
    5. Zhang, Qingyu & Tian, Weili & Zheng, Yingyue & Zhang, Lili, 2010. "Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6860-6867, November.
    6. Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Kebin & Yao, Zhiliang & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Vehicle-use intensity in China: Current status and future trend," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 6-16.
    7. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    8. Zhao, Lili & Chang, Shiyan & Wang, Hailin & Zhang, Xiliang & Ou, Xunmin & Wang, Baiyu & Wu, Maorong, 2015. "Long-term projections of liquid biofuels in China: Uncertainties and potential benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 37-54.
    9. Wang, Zhao & Jin, Yuefu & Wang, Michael & Wei, Wu, 2010. "New fuel consumption standards for Chinese passenger vehicles and their effects on reductions of oil use and CO2 emissions of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5242-5250, September.
    10. Du, J.D. & Han, W.J. & Peng, Y.H. & Gu, C.C., 2010. "Potential for reducing GHG emissions and energy consumption from implementing the aluminum intensive vehicle fleet in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4671-4678.
    11. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6520-6528.
    12. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Liu, Huan & Huang, Ruikun & Un, Puikei & Zhou, Yu & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2014. "Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 247-257.
    13. Hu, Xiaojun & Chang, Shiyan & Li, Jingjie & Qin, Yining, 2010. "Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges, initiatives and policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4289-4301.
    14. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1016-1021, February.
    15. Wang, Haikun & Fu, Lixin & Bi, Jun, 2011. "CO2 and pollutant emissions from passenger cars in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3005-3011, May.
    16. Guo, Bin & Geng, Yong & Franke, Bernd & Hao, Han & Liu, Yaxuan & Chiu, Anthony, 2014. "Uncovering China’s transport CO2 emission patterns at the regional level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 134-146.
    17. Hao, Han & Ou, Xunmin & Du, Jiuyu & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 722-732.
    18. Xunmin Ou & Xiliang Zhang & Xu Zhang & Qian Zhang, 2013. "Life Cycle GHG of NG-Based Fuel and Electric Vehicle in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-19, May.
    19. Oliver, Hongyan H. & Gallagher, Kelly Sims & Tian, Donglian & Zhang, Jinhua, 2009. "China's fuel economy standards for passenger vehicles: Rationale, policy process, and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4720-4729, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6520-6528.
    2. Ben Dror, Maya & Qin, Lanzhi & An, Feng, 2019. "The gap between certified and real-world passenger vehicle fuel consumption in China measured using a mobile phone application data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 8-16.
    3. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi, 2016. "Natural gas as vehicle fuel in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 521-533.
    4. Hao, Han & Wang, Sinan & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "The impact of stepped fuel economy targets on automaker's light-weighting strategy: The China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 755-765.
    5. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Li, Weiqi & Guo, Bin, 2015. "Energy consumption and GHG emissions from China's freight transport sector: Scenarios through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 94-101.
    6. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Liu, Huan & Huang, Ruikun & Un, Puikei & Zhou, Yu & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2014. "Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 247-257.
    7. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 783-793.
    8. Han Hao & Feiqi Liu & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2017. "Measuring Energy Efficiency in China’s Transport Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Li, Peilin & Zhao, Pengjun & Brand, Christian, 2018. "Future energy use and CO2 emissions of urban passenger transport in China: A travel behavior and urban form based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 820-842.
    10. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    11. Li, Yi & Wang, Zhaohua & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Bin, 2021. "Fuel economy of Chinese light-duty car manufacturers: An efficiency analysis perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    12. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.
    13. Wu, Tian & Shang, Zhe & Tian, Xin & Wang, Shouyang, 2016. "How hyperbolic discounting preference affects Chinese consumers’ consumption choice between conventional and electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 400-413.
    14. Atabani, A.E. & Badruddin, Irfan Anjum & Mekhilef, S. & Silitonga, A.S., 2011. "A review on global fuel economy standards, labels and technologies in the transportation sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4586-4610.
    15. Duc Luong, Nguyen, 2015. "A critical review on Energy Efficiency and Conservation policies and programs in Vietnam," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 623-634.
    16. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    17. González Palencia, Juan C. & Sakamaki, Tsukasa & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2015. "Impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on energy use, CO2 emissions and cost of a passenger light-duty vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1489-1504.
    18. Hofmann, Jana & Guan, Dabo & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Huo, Hong, 2016. "Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 995-1003.
    19. Huo, Hong & He, Kebin & Wang, Michael & Yao, Zhiliang, 2012. "Vehicle technologies, fuel-economy policies, and fuel-consumption rates of Chinese vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-36.
    20. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2014. "Techno-economic assessment of lightweight and zero emission vehicles deployment in the passenger car fleet of developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 129-142.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:91:y:2015:i:c:p:151-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.