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Economic structural change and freight transport demand in China

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  • Xu, Xun
  • Chase, Nicholas
  • Peng, Tianduo

Abstract

China's rapidly rising freight transport demand has been one of the primary contributors to global oil consumption growth since 2000 and has remained the dominant source of domestic transport energy consumption during the same period. The objective of this paper is to investigate the main structural driving forces of China's freight transport demand during its fastest growing period (1997–2012), and to analyze its potential future scenario. The results suggest that strong growth of total final demand, an increasingly freight-intensive economic structure, and lengthening inter-industry production linkages, which is consistent with China's investment and export driven development model from 1997 to 2012, have been the main propellers of rapid freight transport demand growth during this time. Looking ahead, as the Chinese economy gradually shifts to a consumption driven model in an increasingly uncertain global economic environment, policymakers need to be aware of both unexpected demand shocks and the inherent changes of the Chinese economy while considering their implications for China's transport energy demand and China's carbon emission mitigation strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Xun & Chase, Nicholas & Peng, Tianduo, 2021. "Economic structural change and freight transport demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:158:y:2021:i:c:s0301421521004377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112567
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    2. Aytekin, Ahmet & Korucuk, Selçuk & Görçün, Ömer Faruk, 2024. "Determining the factors affecting transportation demand management and selecting the best strategy: A case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 150-166.
    3. Wenjie Li & Chun Luo & Yiwei He & Yu Wan & Hongbo Du, 2023. "Estimating Inter-Regional Freight Demand in China Based on the Input–Output Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Elżbieta Szaruga & Elżbieta Załoga, 2022. "Environmental Management from the Point of View of the Energy Intensity of Road Freight Transport and Shocks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.

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