IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v203y2017icp874-882.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will China make a difference in its carbon intensity reduction targets by 2020 and 2030?

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Lei
  • Chen, Nengcheng
  • Chen, Zeqiang

Abstract

The Chinese government has made ambitious commitments in terms of its carbon intensity reduction targets for 2020 and 2030. Whether China will achieve these targets remains uncertain, especially under the context of increasing consistency in carbon emissions cut globally. This study decomposed total energy consumption into five types and modeled each of them with its influential factors based on the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model. Carbon emissions were predicted by combining economic growth forecasting, industrial structure and energy structure projections. The results show that the estimated CO2 emissions in 2020 were 10.05 gigatonnes (Gt), with a 52.8% reduced intensity compared to 2005. And the predicted CO2 emissions in 2030 were 10.39Gt, with a 70.0% reduced intensity. China’s carbon intensity reduction targets in 2020 (40–45%) and 2030 (60–65%) can be met under current policies. However, the total CO2 emissions fail to meet the 450ppm scenario (8.4Gt in 2020 and 7.1Gt in 2030) only by the improvement of industrial structure and energy structure. New policies such as carbon trading market (CTM) and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology need to be developed in depth to further mitigate CO2 emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Lei & Chen, Nengcheng & Chen, Zeqiang, 2017. "Will China make a difference in its carbon intensity reduction targets by 2020 and 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 874-882.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:203:y:2017:i:c:p:874-882
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.06.087
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917308401
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.06.087?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3220-3225, December.
    2. Chang, Ching-Chih, 2010. "A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3533-3537, November.
    3. Marian R. Chertow, 2000. "The IPAT Equation and Its Variants," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 4(4), pages 13-29, October.
    4. Xiao, He & Wei, Qingpeng & Wang, Hailin, 2014. "Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of key energy efficiency technologies in China׳s building sector to 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 92-105.
    5. Park, Hojeong & Hong, Won Kyung, 2014. "Korea׳s emission trading scheme and policy design issues to achieve market-efficiency and abatement targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 73-83.
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Da, Ya-Bin, 2015. "The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1255-1266.
    7. Mavromatidis, Georgios & Orehounig, Kristina & Richner, Peter & Carmeliet, Jan, 2016. "A strategy for reducing CO2 emissions from buildings with the Kaya identity – A Swiss energy system analysis and a case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 343-354.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    10. Yuan, Jiahai & Hou, Yong & Xu, Ming, 2012. "China's 2020 carbon intensity target: Consistency, implementations, and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4970-4981.
    11. Zhou, Wenji & Wang, Tao & Yu, Yadong & Chen, Dingjiang & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation industry through 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 100-108.
    12. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    13. Omri, Anis, 2013. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth nexus in MENA countries: Evidence from simultaneous equations models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 657-664.
    14. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    15. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    16. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Kefan & Chevallier, Julien & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 209-216.
    17. Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
    18. Liu, Lan-Cui & Fan, Ying & Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5892-5900, November.
    19. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    20. Wang, Ke & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "China’s regional industrial energy efficiency and carbon emissions abatement costs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 617-631.
    21. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    22. Wang, Shaojian & Fang, Chuanglin & Guan, Xingliang & Pang, Bo & Ma, Haitao, 2014. "Urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A panel data analysis of China’s provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 738-749.
    23. Zhang, Xian & Fan, Jing-Li & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2013. "Technology roadmap study on carbon capture, utilization and storage in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 536-550.
    24. Martinsen, Thomas, 2011. "Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3327-3336, June.
    25. Elzen, Michel den & Fekete, Hanna & Höhne, Niklas & Admiraal, Annemiek & Forsell, Nicklas & Hof, Andries F. & Olivier, Jos G.J. & Roelfsema, Mark & van Soest, Heleen, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-236.
    26. Kasman, Adnan & Duman, Yavuz Selman, 2015. "CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-103.
    27. Sharif Hossain, Md., 2011. "Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6991-6999.
    28. Sen, Parag & Roy, Mousumi & Pal, Parimal, 2016. "Application of ARIMA for forecasting energy consumption and GHG emission: A case study of an Indian pig iron manufacturing organization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 1031-1038.
    29. Zhang, Da & Karplus, Valerie J. & Cassisa, Cyril & Zhang, Xiliang, 2014. "Emissions trading in China: Progress and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 9-16.
    30. Jiang, Jingjing & Xie, Dejun & Ye, Bin & Shen, Bo & Chen, Zhanming, 2016. "Research on China’s cap-and-trade carbon emission trading scheme: Overview and outlook," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 902-917.
    31. Alshehry, Atef Saad & Belloumi, Mounir, 2015. "Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: The case of Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 237-247.
    32. Luukkanen, J. & Panula-Ontto, J. & Vehmas, J. & Liyong, Liu & Kaivo-oja, J. & Häyhä, L. & Auffermann, B., 2015. "Structural change in Chinese economy: Impacts on energy use and CO2 emissions in the period 2013–2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 303-317.
    33. Guo, Yue & Ren, Tao, 2017. "When it is unfamiliar to me: Local acceptance of planned nuclear power plants in China in the post-fukushima era," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 113-125.
    34. Wang, Changjian & Wang, Fei & Zhang, Xinlin & Yang, Yu & Su, Yongxian & Ye, Yuyao & Zhang, Hongou, 2017. "Examining the driving factors of energy related carbon emissions using the extended STIRPAT model based on IPAT identity in Xinjiang," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 51-61.
    35. Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Ma, Ding, 2014. "A bottom-up analysis of China’s iron and steel industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1174-1183.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pengyan Zhang & Jianjian He & Xin Hong & Wei Zhang & Chengzhe Qin & Bo Pang & Yanyan Li & Yu Liu, 2017. "Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    3. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    4. Ahmad, Nisar & Aghdam, Reza FathollahZadeh & Butt, Irfan & Naveed, Amjad, 2020. "Citation-based systematic literature review of energy-growth nexus: An overview of the field and content analysis of the top 50 influential papers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2019. "The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China's CO2 emissions and emission goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 512-523.
    6. Xiao-Ying Dong & Qiying Ran & Yu Hao, 2019. "On the nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and economic development in China: new evidence from panel data threshold estimations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1837-1857, July.
    7. Xiaoxia Shi & Haiyun Liu & Joshua Sunday Riti, 2019. "The role of energy mix and financial development in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions’ reduction: evidence from ten leading CO2 emitting countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 695-729, October.
    8. Cerdeira Bento, João Paulo, 2014. "The determinants of CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from Italy," MPRA Paper 59166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aida Sy & Tony Tinker & Abdelkader Derbali & Lamia Jamel, 2016. "Economic growth, financial development, trade openness, and CO 2 emissions in European countries," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 155-179.
    10. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur, 2017. "Do population density, economic growth, energy use and exports adversely affect environmental quality in Asian populous countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 506-514.
    11. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Adebola Solarin, Solarin & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and the role of globalization in selected African countries," MPRA Paper 69859, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2016.
    12. Hu, Hui & Xie, Nan & Fang, Debin & Zhang, Xiaoling, 2018. "The role of renewable energy consumption and commercial services trade in carbon dioxide reduction: Evidence from 25 developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 1229-1244.
    13. Usama Al-Mulali & Ilhan Ozturk & Hooi Lean, 2015. "The influence of economic growth, urbanization, trade openness, financial development, and renewable energy on pollution in Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 621-644, October.
    14. Lapatinas, Athanasios & Garas, Antonios & Boleti, Eirini & Kyriakou, Alexandra, 2019. "Economic complexity and environmental performance: Evidence from a world sample," MPRA Paper 92833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mohamed Abdouli & Sami Hammami, 2017. "Economic growth, FDI inflows and their impact on the environment: an empirical study for the MENA countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 121-146, January.
    16. Hongze Li & Bingkang Li & Hao Lu, 2017. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth, and Selected Types of Fossil Energy Consumption in China: Empirical Evidence from 1965 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-14, April.
    17. Manal Ayyad Dhif Alshammry & Saqib Muneer, 2023. "The influence of economic development, capital formation, and internet use on environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Zakaria, Muhammad & Hurr, Maryam, 2017. "Carbon emission, energy consumption, trade openness and financial development in Pakistan: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 185-192.
    19. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2017. "The impact of energy consumption and economic development on Ecological Footprint and CO2 emissions: Evidence from a Markov Switching Equilibrium Correction Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 355-374.
    20. Kais, Saidi & Sami, Hammami, 2016. "An econometric study of the impact of economic growth and energy use on carbon emissions: Panel data evidence from fifty eight countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1101-1110.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:203:y:2017:i:c:p:874-882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.