IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v16y2012i7p4970-4981.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's 2020 carbon intensity target: Consistency, implementations, and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Jiahai
  • Hou, Yong
  • Xu, Ming

Abstract

China has pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 as of 2005 level. This research examines China's 2020 carbon intensity target and its interdependence with the overarching national economic and social development goals. The results show that, with annual GDP growth rate at 7% during the 12th Five-Year-Plan (FYP) period and 6% during the 13th FYP period, the 45% CO2 intensity reduction target implies annual CO2 emissions of 8600 million tonnes by 2020, close to 8400 million tonnes, the UNFCCC 450ppm scenario for China. However, achieving only the 40% reduction target will lead to 9380 million tonnes CO2 emissions in 2020 which largely surpass the UNFCCC 450ppm scenario. We conclude that China's 45% CO2 intensity reduction target is not only within international expectations but also self-consistent with its overall economic and social development strategy. Then primary energy and power planning for implementing the 45% carbon intensity reduction target is proposed. Related investment requirements are also estimated. To achieve the target, China needs to restructure the economic structure for significant improvements in energy conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Jiahai & Hou, Yong & Xu, Ming, 2012. "China's 2020 carbon intensity target: Consistency, implementations, and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4970-4981.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:7:p:4970-4981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.03.065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032112002493
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2012.03.065?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Assessing China’s Energy Conservation and Carbon Intensity: How Will the Future Differ from the Past?," Sustainable Development Papers 92837, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Yuan, Jiahai & Kang, Junjie & Yu, Cong & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2011. "Energy conservation and emissions reduction in China—Progress and prospective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4334-4347.
    3. Kang, Junjie & Yuan, Jiahai & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Yan, 2012. "Review on wind power development and relevant policies in China during the 11th Five-Year-Plan period," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 1907-1915.
    4. Stern, David I. & Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "How ambitious are China and India's emissions intensity targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6776-6783, November.
    5. Price, Lynn & Levine, Mark D. & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Aden, Nathaniel & Lu, Hongyou & McNeil, Michael & Zheng, Nina & Qin, Yining & Yowargana, Ping, 2011. "Assessment of China's energy-saving and emission-reduction accomplishments and opportunities during the 11th Five Year Plan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2165-2178, April.
    6. Yi, Wen-Jing & Zou, Le-Le & Guo, Jie & Wang, Kai & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2407-2415, May.
    7. Steckel, Jan Christoph & Jakob, Michael & Marschinski, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar, 2011. "From carbonization to decarbonization?--Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3443-3455, June.
    8. Yuan, Jiahai & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2011. "Low carbon electricity development in China--An IRSP perspective based on Super Smart Grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 2707-2713, August.
    9. Andrews-Speed, Philip, 2009. "China's ongoing energy efficiency drive: Origins, progress and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1331-1344, April.
    10. Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2011. "Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2875-2887, May.
    11. Wang, Run & Liu, Wenjuan & Xiao, Lishan & Liu, Jian & Kao, William, 2011. "Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target--A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2740-2747, May.
    12. He, Jiankun & Deng, Jing & Su, Mingshan, 2010. "CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4494-4498.
    13. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Ning, Yadong & Song, Yongchen, 2009. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2122-2128, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rauf, Abdul & Zhang, Jin & Li, Jinkai & Amin, Waqas, 2018. "Structural changes, energy consumption and carbon emissions in China: Empirical evidence from ARDL bound testing model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 194-206.
    2. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Kefan & Chevallier, Julien & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 209-216.
    3. Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Bin & Liu, Tongfan, 2016. "Empirical analysis on the factors influencing national and regional carbon intensity in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 34-42.
    4. Pan, Xiongfeng & Xu, Haitao & Feng, Shenghan, 2022. "The economic and environment impacts of energy intensity target constraint: Evidence from low carbon pilot cities in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    5. Wang, Hongxia & Zhang, Junfeng & Fang, Hong, 2017. "Electricity footprint of China’s industrial sectors and its socioeconomic drivers," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 98-106.
    6. Nie, Hongguang & Zhou, Ting & Lu, Haiyan & Huang, Shupeng, 2021. "Evaluation of the efficiency of Chinese energy-saving household appliance subsidy policy: An economic benefit perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Qi, Tianyu & Zhang, Xiliang & Karplus, Valerie J., 2014. "The energy and CO2 emissions impact of renewable energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 60-69.
    8. Wong, Chan-Yuan & Keng, Zi-Xiang & Mohamad, Zeeda Fatimah & Azizan, Suzana Ariff, 2016. "Patterns of technological accumulation: The comparative advantage and relative impact of Asian emerging economies in low carbon energy technological systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 977-987.
    9. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    10. Liang, Yuanyuan & Yu, Biying & Wang, Lu, 2019. "Costs and benefits of renewable energy development in China's power industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 700-712.
    11. Ning, Yadong & Chen, Kunkun & Zhang, Boya & Ding, Tao & Guo, Fei & Zhang, Ming, 2020. "Energy conservation and emission reduction path selection in China: A simulation based on Bi-Level multi-objective optimization model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Lu, Shibao & Wang, Jianhua & Shang, Yizi & Bao, Haijun & Chen, Huixiong, 2017. "Potential assessment of optimizing energy structure in the city of carbon intensity target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 765-773.
    13. Li, Zhiwei & Jia, Xiaoping & Foo, Dominic C.Y. & Tan, Raymond R., 2016. "Minimizing carbon footprint using pinch analysis: The case of regional renewable electricity planning in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1051-1062.
    14. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2019. "The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China's CO2 emissions and emission goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 512-523.
    15. Cui, Lian-Biao & Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei & Bi, Qing-Hua, 2014. "How will the emissions trading scheme save cost for achieving China’s 2020 carbon intensity reduction target?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1043-1052.
    16. Xie, Y.L. & Xia, D.H. & Ji, L. & Zhou, W.N. & Huang, G.H., 2017. "An inexact cost-risk balanced model for regional energy structure adjustment management and resources environmental effect analysis-a case study of Shandong province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 374-391.
    17. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zheng & Zhao, Changhong & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng, 2014. "Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 508-523.
    18. Xu, Lei & Chen, Nengcheng & Chen, Zeqiang, 2017. "Will China make a difference in its carbon intensity reduction targets by 2020 and 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 874-882.
    19. Lindner, Soeren & Liu, Zhu & Guan, Dabo & Geng, Yong & Li, Xin, 2013. "CO2 emissions from China’s power sector at the provincial level: Consumption versus production perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 164-172.
    20. Wu, X.D. & Yang, Q. & Chen, G.Q. & Hayat, T. & Alsaedi, A., 2016. "Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2×600MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1274-1285.
    21. Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Alexopoulos, Thomas A., 2016. "Carbon intensity as a proxy for environmental performance and the informational content of the EPI," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 179-190.
    22. Zhao, Jiafei & Song, Yongchen & Lim, Xin-Le & Lam, Wei-Haur, 2017. "Opportunities and challenges of gas hydrate policies with consideration of environmental impacts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 875-885.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng & Xu, Ming, 2014. "China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 692-700.
    2. Lo, Kevin & Wang, Mark Y., 2013. "Energy conservation in China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan period: Continuation or paradigm shift?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 499-507.
    3. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Kefan & Chevallier, Julien & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 209-216.
    4. Rodríguez, Miguel & Pena-Boquete, Yolanda, 2017. "Carbon intensity changes in the Asian Dragons. Lessons for climate policy design," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 17-26.
    5. Zhang, Da & Rausch, Sebastian & Karplus, Valerie J. & Zhang, Xiliang, 2013. "Quantifying regional economic impacts of CO2 intensity targets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 687-701.
    6. Ni, Jinlan & Wei, Chu & Du, Limin, 2015. "Revealing the political decision toward Chinese carbon abatement: Based on equity and efficiency criteria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 609-621.
    7. Hu, Yu & Monroy, Carlos Rodríguez, 2012. "Chinese energy and climate policies after Durban: Save the Kyoto Protocol," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3243-3250.
    8. Wenxiu Wang & Yaoqiu Kuang & Ningsheng Huang, 2011. "Study on the Decomposition of Factors Affecting Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(12), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q., 2014. "Methane emissions in China 2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 886-902.
    10. Ying Wang & Peipei Shang & Lichun He & Yingchun Zhang & Dandan Liu, 2018. "Can China Achieve the 2020 and 2030 Carbon Intensity Targets through Energy Structure Adjustment?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-32, October.
    11. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    12. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhen & Yu, Zhongfu & Liu, Jiangyan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Ming, 2012. "Managing electric power system transition in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5660-5677.
    13. Liu, Lingxuan & Zhang, Bing & Bi, Jun & Wei, Qi & He, Pan, 2012. "The greenhouse gas mitigation of industrial parks in China: A case study of Suzhou Industrial Park," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 301-307.
    14. Liu, Nan & Ma, Zujun & Kang, Jidong, 2015. "Changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector: Decomposition and attribution analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 28-38.
    15. Xu, Xianshuo & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Kang, Jidong, 2014. "Changes of energy-related GHG emissions in China: An empirical analysis from sectoral perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 298-307.
    16. Rodríguez, Miguel, 2022. "Why do many prospective analyses of CO2 emissions fail? An illustrative example from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    17. Mian Yang & Zheng Hu & Jiahai Yuan, 2016. "The recent history and successes of China's energy efficiency policy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(6), pages 715-730, November.
    18. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q. & Li, J.S. & Tao, L., 2014. "Methane emissions of energy activities in China 1980–2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 11-21.
    19. Ma, Ben & Zheng, Xinye, 2018. "Biased data revisions: Unintended consequences of China's energy-saving mandates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 102-113.
    20. Shi Wang & Hua Wang & Li Zhang & Jun Dang, 2019. "Provincial Carbon Emissions Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 intensity; Energy planning; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:7:p:4970-4981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.