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The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19

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  • He, Ling-Yang
  • Li, Hui
  • Bi, Jian-Wu
  • Yang, Jing-Jing
  • Zhou, Qing

Abstract

This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules: decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao's hotel industry. The empirical results show that: 1) the new approach accurately estimates COVID-19's impact on hotel demand; 2) the seasonal and industry development components contribute significantly to the estimate of expected demand; 3) COVID-19's impact is heterogeneous across hotel services.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Ling-Yang & Li, Hui & Bi, Jian-Wu & Yang, Jing-Jing & Zhou, Qing, 2022. "The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:94:y:2022:i:c:s0160738322000536
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2022.103402
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    6. Zhang, Ziqiong & Wang, Bowen & Law, Rob & Han, Yu, 2024. "Public health emergencies and travelers' review efforts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Xu, Shilin & Liu, Yang & Jin, Chun, 2023. "Forecasting daily tourism demand with multiple factors," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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