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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

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  • Qiu, Richard T.R.
  • Wu, Doris Chenguang
  • Dropsy, Vincent
  • Petit, Sylvain
  • Pratt, Stephen
  • Ohe, Yasuo

Abstract

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Richard T.R. & Wu, Doris Chenguang & Dropsy, Vincent & Petit, Sylvain & Pratt, Stephen & Ohe, Yasuo, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:88:y:2021:i:c:s0160738321000177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155
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    9. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
    10. Yi-Chung Hu, 2023. "Tourism combination forecasting using a dynamic weighting strategy with change-point analysis," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 2357-2374, July.
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    12. Liu, Ying & Wen, Long & Liu, Han & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Predicting tourism recovery from COVID-19: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Kleanthis Natsiopoulos & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2024. "ARDL: An R Package for ARDL Models and Cointegration," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1757-1773, September.
    14. Davide Provenzano & Serena Volo, 2022. "Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(1), pages 110-130, February.
    15. Park, Eunhye & Park, Jinah & Hu, Mingming, 2021. "Tourism demand forecasting with online news data mining," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Yang, Yang & Fan, Yawen & Jiang, Lan & Liu, Xiaohui, 2022. "Search query and tourism forecasting during the pandemic: When and where can digital footprints be helpful as predictors?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Doris Chenguang Wu & Shiteng Zhong & Richard T R Qiu & Ji Wu, 2022. "Are customer reviews just reviews? Hotel forecasting using sentiment analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 795-816, May.
    18. Marcus Roller, 2022. "Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper39, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    19. He, Ling-Yang & Li, Hui & Bi, Jian-Wu & Yang, Jing-Jing & Zhou, Qing, 2022. "The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Zhang, Hanyuan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Wen, Long & Song, Haiyan & Liu, Chang, 2023. "Has COVID-19 changed tourist destination choice?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    21. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    22. Fangming Qin & Gezhi Chen, 2022. "Vulnerability of Tourist Cities’ Economic Systems Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: System Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms—A Case Study of 46 Major Tourist Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, February.
    23. Hu, Yi-Chung, 2023. "Air passenger flow forecasting using nonadditive forecast combination with grey prediction," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    24. Jiafeng Gu, 2024. "Does the Visa-Free Policy Promote Inbound Tourism? Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, June.
    25. Li, Hengyun & Gao, Huicai & Song, Haiyan, 2023. "Tourism forecasting with granular sentiment analysis," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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