Estimation of Manure Emissions Issued from Different Chinese Livestock Species: Potential of Future Production

In this study, mathematical models are used to estimate the emissions of livestock excreta (LE) generated by China’s livestock industry more accurately. Also, the spatial relationship between provinces is analyzed. LE emissions are predicted for the next decade through appropriate parameters and non-parametric models. Additionally, a literature review is conducted to propose two hypotheses. As revealed by the research, there are four stages that LE emissions experience over time. From 2017 to 2021, LE emissions showed a trend of steady increase, suggesting a stronger awareness of the issue and the enforcement of more measures related to management and emission reduction. According to the results of a spatial analysis, there was no significant positive or negative correlation present between LE emissions in different provinces of China. In the selection of the prediction model, the BP-RE model achieved the best predictive performance. According to the prediction results, the fresh weight emissions from China’s livestock industry will increase by 24.53% by 2031, while dry weight emissions will decrease by 28.06%. Large-scale aquaculture farms show an upward trend, with fresh weight and dry weight emissions rising by 11.16% and 2.05%, respectively. Therefore, in light of this study’s findings, it is crucial for China to pursue additional measures in reducing LE emissions, despite the implementation of existing management policies. These insights can inform the development of livestock and poultry manure management policies and resource utilization strategies for the coming decade.