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Spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in the Loess Plateau under a changing environment: Characteristics and potential influencing factors

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  • Han, Zhiming
  • Huang, Qiang
  • Huang, Shengzhi
  • Leng, Guoyong
  • Bai, Qingjun
  • Liang, Hao
  • Wang, Lu
  • Zhao, Jing
  • Fang, Wei

Abstract

Understanding the evolution characteristics of regional drought is crucial to the sustainable development of ecology and social economy, especially in typical water-limited area. However, the exploring the spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in the Loess Plateau (LP) under global warming and regional vegetation restoration project is still insufficient, and its potential causes remain unresolved. To this end, in this study, the standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) was constructed based on the root soil moisture data of the Global Land Data Assimilation System, and their suitability in monitoring agricultural drought in the LP was evaluated. In addition, it is proposed to describe the spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought with the migration of drought centroid, and to further analyze the influencing factors of agricultural drought. Results show that: (1) the response time of agricultural to meteorological drought in the LP is approximately 9 months, mainly with existence of moderate drought and drought coverage nearly 10–25%, and the probability of exceptionally drought in a short time is low; (2) from 1982 to 2015, the spatial distribution of drought frequency in the LP gradually increased from southeast to northwest, and the agricultural drought in the northwest has the characteristics of frequent occurrence, short duration and weak intensity, with no significant trend of longer duration and weaker intensity; (3) among the 7 droughts screened out by the Drought migration model, the migration direction of drought centroids are mainly east–west, concentrated in the middle of the LP. In the early and late stage of drought, drought migration trends to have a longer path and faster speed, while in the middle it is shorter and denser; (4) significant increasing precipitation (p < 0.01) in the LP has not alleviated agricultural drought, whereas significant increasing temperature (p < 0.01) is the direct factor inducing agricultural drought, and the implementation of vegetation restoration project further aggravates the risk of agricultural drought. This study not only provides scientific guidance for agricultural drought early warning, prevention and mitigation of drought losses in the LP from the perspective of time and space, but also offers a valuable reference for understanding the impact of large-scale vegetation restoration projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Zhiming & Huang, Qiang & Huang, Shengzhi & Leng, Guoyong & Bai, Qingjun & Liang, Hao & Wang, Lu & Zhao, Jing & Fang, Wei, 2021. "Spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in the Loess Plateau under a changing environment: Characteristics and potential influencing factors," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:244:y:2021:i:c:s0378377420320874
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106540
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lu Hao & Xiaoyu Zhang & Shoudong Liu, 2012. "Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 785-801, March.
    2. Zhang, Baoqing & Wu, Pute & Zhao, Xining & Wang, Yubao & Wang, Jiawen & Shi, Yinguang, 2012. "Drought variation trends in different subregions of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past four decades," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 167-177.
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    5. Li, Yifei & Huang, Shengzhi & Wang, Hanye & Zheng, Xudong & Huang, Qiang & Deng, Mingjiang & Peng, Jian, 2022. "High-resolution propagation time from meteorological to agricultural drought at multiple levels and spatiotemporal scales," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. Chunlan Guo & Timothy Sim & Guiwu Su, 2021. "Individual Disaster Preparedness in Drought-and-Flood-Prone Villages in Northwest China: Impact of Place, Out-Migration and Community," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Xu, Yang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Zengchao & Hao, Fanghua & Li, Chong, 2021. "Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three‐dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    8. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Xu, Yang & Hao, Fanghua, 2021. "Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    9. Wei Wei & Jiping Wang & Libang Ma & Xufeng Wang & Binbin Xie & Junju Zhou & Haoyan Zhang, 2024. "Global Drought-Wetness Conditions Monitoring Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Lina Liu & Jingjing Zeng & Xinnian Wu & Jiansheng Qu & Xuemei Li & Jing Zhang & Jinyu Han, 2022. "Review on Eco-Environment Research in the Yellow River Basin: A Bibliometric Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
    11. Panxing He & Yiyan Zeng & Ningfei Wang & Zhiming Han & Xiaoyu Meng & Tong Dong & Xiaoliang Ma & Shangqian Ma & Jun Ma & Zongjiu Sun, 2023. "Early Evidence That Soil Dryness Causes Widespread Decline in Grassland Productivity in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    13. Jianying Jia & Junfang Zhao & Heling Wang & Feng Fang & Lanying Han & Funian Zhao, 2023. "Characteristics of the Water Consumption Components of Winter Wheat Fields and Their Effects on the Loess Plateau under Climate Change: An Example at Xifeng Station, Gansu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-11, June.
    14. Tao He & Wenya Zhang & Hanwen Zhang & Jinliang Sheng, 2023. "Estimation of Manure Emissions Issued from Different Chinese Livestock Species: Potential of Future Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.

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