IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v173y2019icp119-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought

Author

Listed:
  • Parsons, David J.
  • Rey, Dolores
  • Tanguy, Maliko
  • Holman, Ian P.

Abstract

Drought has wide ranging impacts on all sectors. Despite much effort to identify the best drought indicator to represents the occurrence of drought impacts in a particular sector, there is still no consensus among the scientific community on this. Using a more detailed and extensive impact dataset than in previous studies, this paper assesses the regional relationship between drought impacts occurrence in British agriculture and two of the most commonly used drought indices (SPI and SPEI). The largest qualitative dataset on reported drought impacts on British agriculture for the period 1975–2012 spanning all major recent droughts was collated. Logistic regression using generalised additive models was applied to investigate the association between drought indices and reported impacts at the regional level. Results show that SPEI calculated for the preceding six months is the best indicator to predict the probability of drought impacts on agriculture in the UK, although the variation in the response to SPEI6 differed between regions. However, this variation appears to result both from the method by which SPEI is derived, which means that similar values of the index equate to different soil moisture conditions in wet and dry regions, and from the variation in agriculture between regions. The study shows that SPEI alone has limited value as an indicator of agricultural droughts in heterogeneous areas and that such results cannot be usefully extrapolated between regions. However, given the drought sensitivity of agriculture, the integration of regional predictions within drought monitoring and forecasting would help to reduce the large on-farm economic damage of drought and increase the sector's resilience to future drought.

Suggested Citation

  • Parsons, David J. & Rey, Dolores & Tanguy, Maliko & Holman, Ian P., 2019. "Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 119-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:173:y:2019:i:c:p:119-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.02.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18310643
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.02.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knox, J. W. & Weatherhead, E. K. & Bradley, R. I., 1997. "Mapping the total volumetric irrigation water requirements in England and Wales," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    3. Rio, M. & Rey, D. & Prudhomme, C. & Holman, I.P., 2018. "Evaluation of changing surface water abstraction reliability for supplemental irrigation under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 200-208.
    4. Rey, D. & Holman, I.P. & Daccache, A. & Morris, J. & Weatherhead, E.K. & Knox, J.W., 2016. "Modelling and mapping the economic value of supplemental irrigation in a humid climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 13-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. N. W. Arnell & A. Freeman, 2021. "The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Intekhab Alam & Shinji Otani & Abir Nagata & Mohammad Shahriar Khan & Toshio Masumoto & Hiroki Amano & Youichi Kurozawa, 2022. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of Drought on Selected Causes of Mortality in Northern Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Wei Pei & Cuizhu Tian & Qiang Fu & Yongtai Ren & Tianxiao Li, 2022. "Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1599-1620, February.
    4. Lei Liu & Jianqin Ma & Xiuping Hao & Qingyun Li, 2019. "Limitations of Water Resources to Crop Water Requirement in the Irrigation Districts along the Lower Reach of the Yellow River in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Vincenzo Guerriero & Anna Rita Scorzini & Bruno Di Lena & Stefano Iulianella & Mario Di Bacco & Marco Tallini, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: Insights from the Abruzzo Region, Central Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Parastoo Parivar & David Quanrud & Ahad Sotoudeh & Mahdieh Abolhasani, 2021. "Evaluation of urban ecological sustainability in arid lands (case study: Yazd-Iran)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 2797-2826, February.
    7. Ioannidou, Sotiroula C. & Litskas, Vassilis D. & Stavrinides, Menelaos C. & Vogiatzakis, Ioannis N., 2022. "Linking management practices and soil properties to Ecosystem Services in Mediterranean mixed orchards," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar, 2021. "Spatial analysis of drought severity and magnitude using the standardized precipitation index and streamflow drought index over the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 15314-15340, October.
    9. McNamara, Ian & Flörke, Martina & Uschan, Thorben & Baez-Villanueva, Oscar M. & Herrmann, Frank, 2024. "Estimates of irrigation requirements throughout Germany under varying climatic conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    10. Thomas Slijper & Yann de Mey & P Marijn Poortvliet & Miranda P M Meuwissen, 2022. "Quantifying the resilience of European farms using FADN," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 121-150.
    11. Wang Yingying & Wang Yibin & Li Fei, 2024. "Dynamics of agricultural system vulnerability to climate change and the externalities of its mitigation in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(7), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Baaken, Dominik & Hess, Sebastian, 2021. "Forecasting Regional Milk Production Quantity: A Comparison of Regression Models and Machine Learning," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315117, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Nabeel Bani Hani & Fakher J. Aukour & Mohammed I. Al-Qinna, 2022. "Investigating the Pearl Millet ( Pennisetum glaucum ) as a Climate-Smart Drought-Tolerant Crop under Jordanian Arid Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rishma Chengot & Jerry W. Knox & Ian P. Holman, 2021. "Evaluating the Feasibility of Water Sharing as a Drought Risk Management Tool for Irrigated Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Rio, M. & Rey, D. & Prudhomme, C. & Holman, I.P., 2018. "Evaluation of changing surface water abstraction reliability for supplemental irrigation under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 200-208.
    3. Lauri Ahopelto & Noora Veijalainen & Joseph H. A. Guillaume & Marko Keskinen & Mika Marttunen & Olli Varis, 2019. "Can There be Water Scarcity with Abundance of Water? Analyzing Water Stress during a Severe Drought in Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Gerhard Tutz & Moritz Berger, 2018. "Tree-structured modelling of categorical predictors in generalized additive regression," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 12(3), pages 737-758, September.
    5. Tommaso Luzzati & Angela Parenti & Tommaso Rughi, 2017. "Spatial error regressions for testing the Cancer-EKC," Discussion Papers 2017/218, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2020. "Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 677-710, September.
    7. Conor Waldock & Bernhard Wegscheider & Dario Josi & Bárbara Borges Calegari & Jakob Brodersen & Luiz Jardim de Queiroz & Ole Seehausen, 2024. "Deconstructing the geography of human impacts on species’ natural distribution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
    9. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
    10. Roberto Basile & Luigi Benfratello & Davide Castellani, 2012. "Geoadditive models for regional count data: an application to industrial location," ERSA conference papers ersa12p83, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Dillon T. Fogarty & Caleb P. Roberts & Daniel R. Uden & Victoria M. Donovan & Craig R. Allen & David E. Naugle & Matthew O. Jones & Brady W. Allred & Dirac Twidwell, 2020. "Woody Plant Encroachment and the Sustainability of Priority Conservation Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-15, October.
    12. E. Zanini & E. Eastoe & M. J. Jones & D. Randell & P. Jonathan, 2020. "Flexible covariate representations for extremes," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), August.
    13. Daniel Melser & Robert J. Hill, 2019. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 111-146, July.
    14. Ji, Shujuan & Liu, Xiaojie & Wang, Yuanqing, 2024. "The role of road infrastructures in the usage of bikeshare and private bicycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 234-246.
    15. Maciej Berȩsewicz & Dagmara Nikulin, 2021. "Estimation of the size of informal employment based on administrative records with non‐ignorable selection mechanism," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 667-690, June.
    16. repec:grz:wpaper:2014-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cathrine Ulla Jensen & Toke Emil Panduro, 2016. "PanJen: A test for functional form with continuous variables," IFRO Working Paper 2016/08, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    18. Ronald E. Gangnon & Natasha K. Stout & Oguzhan Alagoz & John M. Hampton & Brian L. Sprague & Amy Trentham-Dietz, 2018. "Contribution of Breast Cancer to Overall Mortality for US Women," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(1_suppl), pages 24-31, April.
    19. Yuko Araki & Atsushi Kawaguchi & Fumio Yamashita, 2013. "Regularized logistic discrimination with basis expansions for the early detection of Alzheimer’s disease based on three-dimensional MRI data," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 7(1), pages 109-119, March.
    20. Weishampel, Anthony & Staicu, Ana-Maria & Rand, William, 2023. "Classification of social media users with generalized functional data analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    21. Megan K. Jennings & Emily Haeuser & Diane Foote & Rebecca L. Lewison & Erin Conlisk, 2020. "Planning for Dynamic Connectivity: Operationalizing Robust Decision-Making and Prioritization Across Landscapes Experiencing Climate and Land-Use Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:173:y:2019:i:c:p:119-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.