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Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Pei

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Cuizhu Tian

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Qiang Fu

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University
    Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Yongtai Ren

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Tianxiao Li

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

Abstract

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Pei & Cuizhu Tian & Qiang Fu & Yongtai Ren & Tianxiao Li, 2022. "Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1599-1620, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:110:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05004-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05004-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Qianchuan Mi & Chuanyou Ren & Yanhua Wang & Xining Gao & Limin Liu & Yue Li, 2023. "A robust ensemble drought index: construction and assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1139-1159, March.
    2. Dongxing Zhang & Dang Luo, 2022. "Assessment of agricultural drought loss using a skewed grey cloud ordered clustering model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2787-2810, December.

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