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Short- and Long-Term Effects of Drought on Selected Causes of Mortality in Northern Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Intekhab Alam

    (Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago 683-8503, Japan)

  • Shinji Otani

    (International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, Yonago 680-0001, Japan)

  • Abir Nagata

    (Department of Regenerative Dermatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan)

  • Mohammad Shahriar Khan

    (International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, Yonago 680-0001, Japan)

  • Toshio Masumoto

    (Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago 683-8503, Japan)

  • Hiroki Amano

    (Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago 683-8503, Japan)

  • Youichi Kurozawa

    (Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago 683-8503, Japan)

Abstract

Drought has exacerbated morbidity and mortality worldwide. Here, a time series study was conducted in northern Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of drought on selected causes of mortality during 2007–2017. Rainfall and temperature data from six meteorological stations were used to analyze drought and non-drought periods and to categorize mild, moderate, severe, and extreme drought based on the 3-month and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). A generalized linear model with Poisson regression with log link, a negative binomial with log link, and a zero-inflated Poisson model were used to determine associations between drought severity and mortality. The SPI and SPEI produced slightly different analysis results. Compared with the SPEI, the SPI showed a stronger and more sensitive correlation with mortality. The relative risk for respiratory disease mortality was high, and Saidpur was the most vulnerable area. Health care expenditure was negatively associated with mortality. High temperatures during the drought period were associated with suicide-related mortality in Rajshahi. The impact of drought on mortality differed with small changes in climate. The findings of this study improve our understanding of the differences between the two most used drought indicators and the impact of drought on mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Intekhab Alam & Shinji Otani & Abir Nagata & Mohammad Shahriar Khan & Toshio Masumoto & Hiroki Amano & Youichi Kurozawa, 2022. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of Drought on Selected Causes of Mortality in Northern Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:6:p:3425-:d:770799
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