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China meets the middle-income trap: the large potholes in the road to catching-up

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  • Wing Thye Woo

Abstract

We follow Woo (2011) in using the Catch-Up Index (CUI) to define the middle-income trap and identify the countries caught in it. The CUI shows that China became a middle-income country in 2007--2008. We see five major types of middle-income trap to which China is vulnerable: (a) fiscal stress from the nonperforming loans generated by the interaction between the lending practices of the state banks and the innate desire by state enterprise managers to over-invest and embezzle; (b) the frequent use of macro-stabilization tools that hurt long-term productivity growth; (c) flaws in socio-political governance that exacerbate social tensions; (d) ineffective management of environmental challenges that threaten sustainable development; and (e) inept handling of international economic tensions that could unleash trade conflict. We recommend new governance principles and management methods to prevent China from falling into these five types of middle-income trap.

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  • Wing Thye Woo, 2012. "China meets the middle-income trap: the large potholes in the road to catching-up," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 313-336, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:10:y:2012:i:4:p:313-336
    DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2012.724980
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    1. Prajapati, Vishwajeet Singh & Priya, Ashutosh & Pradhan, Vikas, 2023. "The Middle-Income Trap – A Problem Of Definition And Empirical Research," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(3), September.
    2. Bingqiang Li & Lei Huang, 2019. "The Effect of Incremental Innovation and Disruptive Innovation on the Sustainable Development of Manufacturing in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    3. Székely-Doby, András, 2014. "A kínai reformfolyamat politikai gazdaságtani logikája [The politico-economic logic of the Chinese reform process]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1397-1418.
    4. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2020. "The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia* Abstract: We modify the concept of the middle-income trap (MIT) against ," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 40-58, Fall.
    5. Petar Sorić, 2020. "“Normal†growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1740-1746.
    6. Semih Gökatalay, 2015. "Political Economy of Middle-Income Trap Concept," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 275, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    7. Semanur SoyyiÄŸit, 2019. "The Relationship Between Middle Income Trap and Structural Transformation: The Case of Selected Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 217-235, December.
    8. Prajapati Vishwajeet Singh & Priya Ashutosh & Pradhan Vikas, 2023. "The middle-income trap – a problem of definition and empirical research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 459-472, September.
    9. Chun-kei Tsang & Sung-ko Li, 2020. "Allocation of resources within subgroups of an industry: a case study in the Chinese industrial sector," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 125-139, February.
    10. Ali Cem Ozturk & Burcu Yavuz Tiftikcigil, 2020. "Study on the Presence of Middle Income Trap in E7 and Fragile Five Countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Affairs (IJBEA), Sana N. Maswadeh, vol. 5(3), pages 117-129.
    11. Xing Shi & Yanrui Wu & Dahai Fu & Xiumei Guo & Huaqing Wu, 2019. "Effects of National Science and Technology Programs on Innovation in Chinese Firms," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 207-236, Winter/Sp.
    12. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    13. Ding Lu, 2017. "China's Growth Slowdown and Prospects for Becoming a High-Income Developed Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 89-113, Winter/Sp.
    14. Li Xie & Wing Thye Woo & Zhichao Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2015. "A Multiple-Goal Investment Strategy for Sovereign Wealth Funds: An Application to China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 78-97, Winter/Sp.
    15. Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem & Sancar, Canan, 2021. "The impact of export dynamics on trade balance in emerging and developed countries: An evaluation with middle income trap perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-375.
    16. Flechtner, Svenja & Panther, Stephan, 2017. "Global and domestic inequalities and the political economy of the midde-income trap," Working Paper Serie des Instituts für Ökonomie Ök-29, Hochschule für Gesellschaftsgestaltung (HfGG), Institut für Ökonomie.
    17. Xiaolan Fu & Wing Thye Woo & Jun Hou, 2016. "Technological innovation policy in China: the lessons, and the necessary changes ahead," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 139-157, August.
    18. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 15/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2020.
    19. Székely-Doby, András, 2017. "A kínai fejlesztő állam kihívásai [Challenges to the Chinese developmental state]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 630-649.
    20. Dariusz Kotlewski & Mirosław Błażej, 2022. "Evidence for Middle‐Income Trap Non‐occurrence in the Light of KLEMS Growth Accounting for Poland," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 22-51, April.

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