IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iatr13/152269.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Productivity growth at the sectoral level: measurement and projections

Author

Listed:
  • Dijk, Michiel van

Abstract

Global simulation models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of policies related to food security, land use and climate change. A crucial element in these studies are assumptions on productivity change and technical progress, the key drivers of long-run economic growth and structural change. However, despite their importance, these assumptions are often simplistic or rather ad hoc. This paper addresses this issue by presenting sector and country specific projections for labour productivity till the year 2050 for seven economic regions in the world.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Dijk, Michiel van, 2013. "Productivity growth at the sectoral level: measurement and projections," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152269, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iatr13:152269
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.152269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/152269/files/A.3.2_presentation-Van%20Dijk_Seville2013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.152269?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Anders Sørensen & Bertel Schjerning, 2008. "Productivity Measurement in Manufacturing and the Expenditure Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 327-340, May.
    3. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    4. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P., 2005. "The 'appropriate technology' explanation of productivity growth differentials: An empirical approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 517-531, August.
    5. Dale W. Jorgenson & Marcel P. Timmer, 2011. "Structural Change in Advanced Nations: A New Set of Stylised Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(1), pages 1-29, March.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Productivity across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 135-146, February.
    7. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Unconditional Convergence," NBER Working Papers 17546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    11. Dale W. Jorgenson & Frank M. Gollop, 1992. "Productivity Growth in U.S. Agriculture: A Postwar Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 745-750.
    12. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
    13. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    15. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    16. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    17. Oulton,Nicholas & O'Mahony,Mary, 1994. "Productivity and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521453455, September.
    18. Henry Tulkens & Philippe Eeckaut, 2006. "Nonparametric Efficiency, Progress and Regress Measures For Panel Data: Methodological Aspects," Springer Books, in: Parkash Chander & Jacques Drèze & C. Knox Lovell & Jack Mintz (ed.), Public goods, environmental externalities and fiscal competition, chapter 0, pages 395-429, Springer.
    19. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2012. "Productivity Convergence Across Industries and Countries: The Importance of Theory-based Measurement," Chapters, in: Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    21. Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2009. "Disaggregate productivity comparisons: sectoral convergence in OECD countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 63-79, October.
    22. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December.
    23. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado & Markus Poschke, 2011. "Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 127-158, July.
    25. Anders Sorensen, 2001. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1160-1167, September.
    26. Dale W. Jorgenson & Marcel P. Timmer, "undated". "Structural Change in Advanced Nations," Working Paper 13525, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    27. Sanjaya Lall, 1996. "Learning from the Asian Tigers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-38989-2, March.
    28. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-1238, December.
    29. Nin, Alejandro & Arndt, Channing & Preckel, Paul V., 2003. "Is agricultural productivity in developing countries really shrinking? New evidence using a modified nonparametric approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 395-415, August.
    30. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
    31. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    32. Vries, Gaaitzen J. de & Los, Bart & Castellacci, Fulvio, 2010. "Sectoral Productivity Trends:Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-118, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    33. Fagerberg, Jan & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. "Technology-gaps, innovation-diffusion and transformation: an evolutionary interpretation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1291-1304, December.
    34. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    35. Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2009. "Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: a new sectoral data set," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(2), pages 165-190, June.
    36. Breschi, Stefano & Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2000. "Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 388-410, April.
    37. Baumol, William J. & Nelson, Richard R. & Wolff, Edward N. (ed.), 1994. "Convergence of Productivity: Cross-National Studies and Historical Evidence," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195083903.
    38. Wilson, Paul W., 2008. "FEAR: A software package for frontier efficiency analysis with R," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 247-254, December.
    39. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-422, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rakotoarisoa, Manitra A., 2016. "Welfare and Employment Effects of Liberalization of the Services Trade between the African Caribbean and Pacific and the European Union Countries," Conference papers 332756, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Orecchia, Carlo & Parrado, Ramiro, 2014. "Deployment of new clean technologies in developing countries in a CGE framework: fostering investments in clean and renewable energy," Conference papers 332492, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Rakotoarisoa, Manitra A., 2017. "Services Trade Liberalization between the European Union and Africa Caribbean and Pacific Countries: A Dynamic Approach," Conference papers 332844, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Van Dijk, Michiel, 2013. "Productivity growth at the sectoral level: measurement and projections," Conference papers 332295, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Murat Ungor, 2017. "Productivity Growth and Labor Reallocation: Latin America versus East Asia," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 25-42, March.
    3. Murat Üngör, 2016. "Did the rising importance of services decelerate overall productivity improvement of Turkey during 2002–2007?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 238-261, July.
    4. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alessandro Nuvolari & Emanuele Russo, 2019. "Technical progress and structural change: a long-term view," LEM Papers Series 2019/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Vries, Gaaitzen J. de & Los, Bart & Castellacci, Fulvio, 2010. "Sectoral Productivity Trends:Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-118, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    7. Maciej Grodzicki, 2013. "Productivity Convergence in Manufacturing in the European Union: The Role of Economic Structure," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(2).
    8. Fulvio Castellacci & Bart Los & Gaaitzen Vries, 2014. "Sectoral productivity trends: convergence islands in oceans of non-convergence," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 983-1007, November.
    9. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2014. "The Relative Price of Services," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 727-746, December.
    10. Costantini, Valeria & Liberati, Paolo, 2014. "Technology transfer, institutions and development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 26-48.
    11. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    13. Miketa, Asami & Mulder, Peter, 2005. "Energy productivity across developed and developing countries in 10 manufacturing sectors: Patterns of growth and convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 429-453, May.
    14. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2020. "Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1400-1443.
    15. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    16. Peter Mulder & Henri Groot, 2007. "Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 85-112, January.
    17. Gisela Di Meglio & Jorge Gallego & Andrés Maroto & Maria Savona, 2015. "Services in Developing Economies: A new chance for catching-up?," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-32, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. Alison Stegman, 2011. "Sectoral Productivity, Structural Change and Convergence," CAMA Working Papers 2011-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2008. "Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches," MPRA Paper 27523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    21. Aradhna Aggarwal & Nagesh Kumar, 2012. "Structural Change, Industrialization and Poverty Reduction: The Case of India," Development Papers 1206, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office.
    22. Vatthanamixay Chansomphou & Masaru Ichihashi, 2013. "Structural change, labor productivity growth, and convergence of BRIC countries," IDEC DP2 Series 3-5, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iatr13:152269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iatrcea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.