IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00774.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Siew-Pong Cheah

    (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman)

  • Thian-Hee Yiew

    (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman)

  • Cheong-Fatt Ng

    (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relation between stock prices and exchange rates in Malaysia using monthly observations from 1993M01 to 2015M12. Although plenty of studies have discussed on this issue by employing various empirical techniques, these studies often assumed that the dynamics between stock prices and exchange rates are symmetric. This study wonders if introduction of nonlinearity in exchange rate movement can shed new light on this issue, with application of the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) technique. The bounds test of the NARDL specification indicates the presence of cointegration among the variables, which include the stock returns, currency appreciations and depreciations, national production, money supply, and inflation. The estimated NARDL models suggest that exchange rate movements have significant short-run and long-run effects on stock prices in Malaysia, and that stock market responds asymmetrically against currency appreciation and depreciation. Namely, in the long run, changes of KLCI are only responding to RM depreciation but not RM appreciation. In addition, stock price–exchange rate relation is sensitive to observation periods and change in exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Siew-Pong Cheah & Thian-Hee Yiew & Cheong-Fatt Ng, 2017. "A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 336-346.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2017/Volume37/EB-17-V37-I1-P30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nararuk Boonyanam, 2014. "Relationship of Stock Price and Monetary Variables of Asian Small Open Emerging Economy: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 52-63, January.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2015. "On the relation between stock prices and exchange rates: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 707-732, September.
    6. R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
    7. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    9. Mohd Tahir Ismail & Zaidi Bin Isa, 2009. "Modeling The Interactions Of Stock Price And Exchange Rate In Malaysia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(04), pages 605-619.
    10. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Tang Bo, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate exposure of stock returns: empirical evidence from Chinese industries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, June.
    12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    13. Gary Tian & Shiguang Ma, 2010. "The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 490-508.
    14. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
    15. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    16. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    17. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    18. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    19. Hooi-Hooi Lean & Marwan Halim, 2005. "Bivariate Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices on Major Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 10/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    20. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    21. Azeez, A.A. & Yonezawa, Yasuhiro, 2006. "Macroeconomic factors and the empirical content of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-591, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. USMAN, Jabir Muhammed & AGUNBIADE, Olabode & AKUSO, Jonah, 2024. "Public Budget Deficit and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from NARDL Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(3s), pages 3884-3896, September.
    2. Tomader Gaber Elbasheer Elhassan, 2020. "The Asymmetric Impact of Trade Openness on Inflation in Sudan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(12), pages 1396-1409, December.
    3. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905, August.
    4. Daregot Berihun & Passel Steven, 2022. "Climate variability and macroeconomic output in Ethiopia: the analysis of nexus and impact via asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag cointegration method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 4064-4087, March.
    5. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    6. Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Yousfi, Mohamed, 2023. "What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Faaza Fakhrunnas & Rindang Nuri Isnaini Nugrohowati & Razali Haron & Mohammad Bekti Hendrie Anto, 2022. "The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Indonesian Banking Industry: An Asymmetric Approach Before and During the Pandemic Crisis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, June.
    8. Omer Ahmed Sayed Mohamed & Faiza Omer Mohammed Elmahgop, 2020. "Is the Effect of the Exchange Rate on Stock Prices Symmetric or Asymmetric? Evidence from Sudan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 209-215.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2018. "On the relation between exchange rates and stock prices: a non-linear ARDL approach and asymmetry analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 112-137, January.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Saha, Sujata, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on stock prices?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 57-72.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2019. "On the effects of policy uncertainty on stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 764-778, October.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Saha, Sujata, 2016. "Asymmetry cointegration between the value of the dollar and sectoral stock indices in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 78-86.
    6. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HarzAllah, AMIRA, 2020. "Can Canadian Stock market provide complete hedge against Inflation ?," MPRA Paper 99093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rabia Luqman & Rehana Kouser, 2018. "Asymmetrical Linkages between Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence through Linear and Non-Linear ARDL," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Sujata Saha, 2022. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Changes on Stock Prices: Evidence from Country and Sectoral Level Data," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 237-282, April.
    9. Abbas Ghulam & Bhowmik Roni & Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang, 2017. "Cointegration and Causality Relationship Between Stock Market, Money Market and Foreign Exchange Market in Pakistan," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    11. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    14. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    15. Pooja Joshi & A K Giri, 2015. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and Indian Stock Price: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 1119-1133, October.
    16. Thampanya, Natthinee & Wu, Junjie & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Liu, Jia, 2020. "Fundamental and behavioural determinants of stock return volatility in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    18. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Javed Pervaiz & Sunil Kumar Chaudhary, 2017. "Nexuses between Economic Factors and Stock Returns in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 182-191, September.
    19. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    20. Hosseini, Seyed Mehdi & Ahmad, Zamri & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Index in China and India," MPRA Paper 112215, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock price; Exchange rate; Nonlinear ARDL; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.